Month: February 2018

The newest version of the software, Handicap Wizard 2.1, is now available for purchase and download. The program has been expanded to 20 entrants from 16, making it Kentucky Derby eligible. Furthermore, a new worksheet dedicated to return on investment (ROI) calculations for the horses has been added. Look for more product upgrades in the future, including the addition of a file import module for BRIS and other single data files.

Today the positive ROI strategy—first discussed on the Philosophy page—was put to the test at Parx. It had a successful result in race three with Veblen Good, who won at nearly 10-1. The horse was the only one to have a positive expected ROI of +120%, other than Lendar at just +2%. All of the other horses had negative expected ROI. This illustrates how lopsided horse racing is, because of odds manipulation, unless you have the right tool to exploit the track’s weakness. The strategy was also applied in race 2 with Watch Your Words at 7-1, who was the only one among eight horses to have a positive expected ROI.  The horse came in a close second, losing by half a length.

Today there was cause to smile at the results of the Handicap Wizard for Race 6 at Aquaduct. This race exemplifies how the custom calculation of winning percentage adjusted for stakes can more than compensate for relatively weak speed figures. Over 1M on the main track for a $31K purse, Battle of Evermore at 8.5-1 odds defeated favorite Pirellone (2-1) and three other horses with lower odds by three lengths. The horse and the opportunity were identifiable in the first place for having the WP calculation in the model, with Battle of Evermore ranking highest in this metric (27%). Paid $17.00 for the win.

The Handicap Wizard picked a third consecutive winner at Gulfstream, this time in race 4 with Herecomesyourman, who shortly before the post was 5-2, only to drop down to 7-5 by post time. Paid $4.80. The program was not used in race 3.

On Feb. 22, the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the tri-fecta in race 2 over 7f at Gulstream on turf for $22K. Against any suggestion that the model simply picks the “chalks” according to the live odds, which could not be true because the probabilities are purely theoretical and have no connection to the live odds, you will note that the program had Over Limit in second with longer odds of 8-1 over Jaiden’s Best in third at  9-5 (and Sir Hannoun at 3-1!).  Strong Competition at 6-5 was the winner, paying $4.60. This was after the Handicap Wizard picked the winner in race 1, New Atlas.