Day: February 17, 2018

The result today in Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds was a bitter sweet one for the Handicap Wizard. While the two favorites of the model, Nobile Bird (5-2) and Instilled Regard (7-5), came in 3rd and 4th respectively, the program had both the winner and place finisher, Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair, in its top four, despite the tremendously long odds of these horses at 21-1 and 40-1. In other words, both a boxed tri-fecta and boxed superfecta bet on the four horses would have won, paying $845.00 for $0.50 for the tri-fecta and $418.28 for $.10 for the superfecta.

Value betting is a strategy that can be employed with success with the Handicap Wizard. For the Old Man Eloquent Stakes at Gulf Stream (Race 7), a $60K race over 1 1/16 mi. on turf, both Second Mate and Conquest Sandman had 11% probabilities to win by WP adjusted for stakes versus odds of 12-1 and 7-1, respectfully. Just before post, the odds were higher, around 12-1 for each, before the track beat the odds down on Conquest Sandman, who was in the 1 post. The horses offered value over the favorite, Slim Shady at 3-1, which the model picked to win in the combined estimate.  As it turns out, Conquest Sandman held off Slim Shady in a tough duel down the stretch to get the win, paying $17.20.