Month: February 2018

Value betting is a strategy that can be employed with success with the Handicap Wizard. For the Old Man Eloquent Stakes at Gulf Stream (Race 7), a $60K race over 1 1/16 mi. on turf, both Second Mate and Conquest Sandman had 11% probabilities to win by WP adjusted for stakes versus odds of 12-1 and 7-1, respectfully. Just before post, the odds were higher, around 12-1 for each, before the track beat the odds down on Conquest Sandman, who was in the 1 post. The horses offered value over the favorite, Slim Shady at 3-1, which the model picked to win in the combined estimate.  As it turns out, Conquest Sandman held off Slim Shady in a tough duel down the stretch to get the win, paying $17.20.

Race 11 at Gulfstream on Feb. 14 shows that the model works as well for stakes races as it does for lesser maiden races, provided there is enough data to assess. In a 10 horse field at 1 1/16 mi. on turf for $24K, the Handicap Wizard predicted 3-1 winner, Freudian Fall, over 8-5 favorite, Wigwam Summer. Paid $8.20.

Received news today from a customer of the software, Kevin B. from Illinois, who used it to handicap the Sam F. Davis Stakes this past weekend at Tampa, that the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted #2 Flameaway to win. At 10-1, Flameaway defeated the heavy favorite, Catholic Boy at 1-2.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/flameaway-upsets-heavily-favored-catholic-boy-sam-f-davis/

“According to the tote board, Catholic Boy (1-2) was going to walk all over the other five sophomore colts entered in Saturday’s G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. But when the favorite drew even with 10-1 frontrunner Flameaway at the head of the lane, there was another story to be told. Jose Lezcano and Flameaway re-rallied in the stretch and fought all the way to the wire, beating Catholic Boy by a half-length to earn 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Ontario-bred son of Scat Daddy, trained by Mark Casse for John Oxley, covered 1 1/16 miles over Tampa’s fast main track in 1:42.44.”

The 5th race at Santa Anita today demonstrated as well as any race the value of the balanced approach of the Handicap Wizard. In a five horse field of four-year olds and upward, Dukes Up at 5-2 defeated two favorites over 1 1/16 mi. on the main track, including Saint Dermot at 9-5 and Southern Freedom at 7-5. Despite not having the most speed in the race, with only a 19% probability to win in that category versus 32% and 34% of the other horses, Dukes Up’s superior winning percentage (39%) carried him home to victory. It goes to show that speed is not everything, and that winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, can more than compensate.

On February 8, the Handicap Wizard picked the tri-fecta in the $100K Biogio Rose Stakes at Aqueduct.