Month: March 2018

This Saturday features the latest running of the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Comprised of a field of nine, including four graded-stakes winners, the race is sure to be a competitive one, with the horses vying for a place in the Kentucky Derby. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners, three went through South Florida en route to winning the roses at Churchill. After a seven week layoff, Pletcher trained, Audible, returns to dirt after romping in the G2 Holy Bull Stakes on this same track in late February, when he went 1 1/16 mi. in 1:41.92. Contesting Audible will be the Fountain of Youth Stakes winner, Promises Unfulfilled, a son of Shackleford and Dale Romans’ trained horse, who pulled off an upset at 18-1 against good company in Strike Power, winner of the G3 Swale Stakes, who also is in the this race. On the back of a second place finish in the Sam F. Davis stakes to Flameaway, Catholic Boy will be reaching out to 1 1/8 mi. again, a distance at which he won the G2 Remsen as a two-year old in December. Other notable horses running are Storm Runner, another Dale Romans trained horse, who ran well enough to win a $75K allowance race  at 1 1/16 mi. in Feb., and Mississippi, who was second to Storm Runner, in his last race. The Handicap Wizard is calling the race very close between Audible, Catholic Boy, Strike Power, Mississippi and Promises Fulfilled, who are all with 4% from one another in terms of  probabilities, with winning estimates between 16% and 20%. Audible is a slight favorite but expensive compared to M/L of 9/5.

The $1,000,000 G2 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds today is set to test the endurance of a strong field of ten at 1 1/8 mi. In post one, Bravazo hopes to repeat his performance in the Risen Star Stakes last month, when he edged out Snapper Sinclair in a tough duel down the stretch. Bravazo will have Gary Stevens riding, while Jose Ortiz will be aboard Snapper Sinclair out of post seven. Jockey, Kent Desormeux, will be returning to his home state to ride My Boy Jack out of post nine, who won the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in impressive fashion by 4 1/2 lengths on Feb. 19. After winning his first two races, Noble Indy had a third place finish in his first stakes race in the Risen Star, behind Snapper Sinclair and Bravazo; he will be looking to build on that effort with John Valezquez in the saddle. The sleeper in the race is Dark Templar, who has shown an affinity for the Fair Grounds track, where he has not finished worse than 3rd there in his last three, while winning his last. Florent Geroux will be riding the son of Tapit, who certainly has the pedigree to go the 1 1/8 mi. The Handicap Wizard is signaling this will be a close race, favoring My Boy Jack slightly over Bravazo, followed by Snapper Sinclair.

On paper, the $900K Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park this Saturday appears to be a race that will be decided by whether Baffert trained, Solomini, after a three-month layoff can regain the form that propelled him to finish no worse than second in three G1 races toward the end of last year, including a win in the Los Alamos Futurity in December, in which he defeated McKenzie by ¾ of a length. Other than Solomini, Sporting Chance and Combatant, there is not a lot of class in this race. Sporting Chance has one G1 victory, coming in the Hopeful Stakes last September at Saratoga, albeit at 7f. The horse finished 3^rd his last time out in the G3 Southwest Stakes in February, when he was beaten by 7 lengths. Son of Scat Daddy, Combatant, has been competitive in his last three starts in stakes company, getting three 2^nd place finishes, including one in the Southwest. But his only win was in his maiden race at Churchill last October. As the second favorite, Pletcher trained, Magnum Moon, is making his third start and the second at two turns, after winning his first two races.  If there is going to be a surprise in the race, it may be with Title Ready in post one, who has two victories in his last three races, including a win by nearly four lengths in his last at the same 1 1/16 mi. distance as the Rebel. Another horse, long-shot, Pryor, has shown good progression in his four starts, winning his maiden in his last at 1 mi. at Oaklawn by 6 lengths, in which he went wire-to-wire. With a 41% winning estimate, the Handicap Wizard is picking Solomini to win, followed by Magnum Moon and Title Ready.