Month: March 2018

The horse with the highest ROI number, Team of Teams, won the $100K Sand Spring Stakes (race 5) today at Gulfstream. In the 2nd of four graded stakes races, over 1 mi. on turf, Team of Teams at 11-1 upset the heavy favorite, Celestine, at 2-5.  With an expected 84% ROI, the horse paid $24.20 for the win. Quite egregious manipulation by the track that it took a horse, according to this model, with a 40% winning probability and depressed the odds to make it have a -52% expected ROI, the worst figure of all the horses in the field. No, the track does not like to give out free money.

In the first of four graded stakes races today, March 3, at Gulfstream , the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted Holy Helena to win the $150K G3 race over 1 3/16 mi. on turf.  Horse paid $9.40 with an even expected ROI.

On March 2, the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted Ninety-One Assault to win race 8 at the Fairgrounds. Not only did it pick the winner in this 12 horse $40K claiming race over 1M on turf for four-year-olds, it nearly picked the place horse, too, in Dapper Jack at 24-1, who missed 2nd only by a nose in a photo. The odds on Ninety-One Assault were beaten down to 7-5 by the post, so that it had a -34% expected ROI, whereas Dapper Jack had a 141% expected ROI. Even finishing show, Dapper Jack outpaid the winner $8.80 to $4.80.