Day: April 7, 2018

The $1 million San Anita Derby shapes up to be a clash between two heavy weights in San Felipe Stakes runner-up, Bolt D’Oro, and undefeated, Justify. Justify has the edge in speed in this race, posting a 104 final Brisnet speed figure his last time out in a $75K claiming race, which was only his second race ever. On the other hand, Bolt D’Oro has been tried and tested, most notably in defeating arch-rival McKinzie in the San Felipe Stakes, only to have that first-place effort nullified through disqualification for having bumped McKenzie down the stretch. The 1 1/8 mi. distance of the race may play to Bolt D’Oro’s advantage in being a late running horse, whereas Justify has yet to have gone beyond 1 mile. Still, the Handicap Wizard sees the contest being close, with Bolt D’Oro having a slight 41% versus 40% edge against Justify.

The $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland may be the most interesting of the three prep races today, because of the large field and the return of several former graded stakes winners, including Good Magic, Flameaway and Quip, with the latter being the surprise winner of the Tampa Bay Derby at 19-1 odds. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Good Magic’s class in this race, who with his wins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Champaign Stakes as a two-year old and his 3rd place result in the Fountain of Youth as a three-year old put him heads above the rest, despite speed threats from Blended Citizen, Flameaway and Machismo. For second and third the Handicap Wizard is calling it a close contest between between Blended Citizen and Flameaway, with each receiving about a 17% winning estimate.

This Saturday features three Kentucky Derby prep races and a number of key match-ups that will determine who gets to run for the roses on the first Saturday in May. In the $750K Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Enticed will see if he can repeat his win in the Gotham Stakes from a month ago, which was his best performance yet as a three-year old. Enticed will have to contend with Old Time Revival and Firenze Fire, who finished 2nd and 4th in the Gotham, and with Vino Rosso, the third-runner up in the Sam F. Davis. Among the other horses, Evaluator may pose a challenge for having won and finished a close 2nd in graded stakes company at the 1 mi. distance. The Handicap Wizard is predicting a fairly substantial advantage in this race by Enticed with a 30% estimated winning percentage at roughly 2/1 odds value. The Gotham Runner-ups are predicted second and third, with Old Time Revival receiving a 21% winning estimate and Firenze Fire a 17% probability.