Month: May 2018

The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted winners in five out of six claiming races at Gulfstream Park on Saturday (not counting the 5f race in the 11th), even on a sloppy track. This included a big result in the 10th with Power Jak winning, paying $16.80. The ROI for those claiming races was 212% with a total profit of $25.40 for $12 worth of wagers.

Race 4

Race 5

Race 6

Race 10

Race 12

With Bolt d’Oro opting to pass on the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown is shaping up to be a lopsided affair in favor of Kentucky Derby Champion, Justify. Only Derby runner-up, Good Magic, realistically is poised to challenge, who, despite never leading in the race, finished a dogged two lengths back in the mud. Coming in as a new shooter, Tampa Bay Derby winner, Quip, has the potential to hit the board, as does Lone Sailor, who benefited from a rail trip in the Kentucky Derby to capture 8th. However, both fall well short of the two favorites to warrant any serious win consideration and will likely be underlays, considering their theoretical odds are 19-1. Bravazo could surprise after an excellent effort in the Kentucky Derby, which saw him in fourth position after the far turn, only to flatten out for sixth. Observers have noted that the horse traveled forty-four feet more in the Derby than Justify did from taking a wide trip for most of the race. With a smaller field of nine contenders, Bravazo is expected to be closer to the pace this time, which should put him more in contention down the stretch. But at 25-1 in the futures odds, he is expensive even as a long-shot according to the model.

 

 

 

 

As a further illustration of the accuracy of the program, the Handicap Wizard rated Blended Citizen (7-2) essentially equal to the odds favorite, Core Beliefs (2-1), in the 1 1/8 mi. Peter Pan (G3) last Saturday at Belmont, assigning each a combined winning estimate of 30%. Next came Just Whistle and High North both with 13%. This was the order of the superfecta. In comparison, the live odds had the order Core Beliefs/High North (2-1), followed by Just Whistle (5-2) and Blended Citizen (7-2) fourth. Having the highest speed estimate, Blended Citizen overtook Core Beliefs with a burst of speed deep down the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths.

Regarding the BRIS single data file for Churchill Down’s Saturday card, featuring the Kentucky Derby, be aware that there is only one speed figure for Mendelssohn in the 12th race and that is not for his spectacular UAE Derby win. Unfortunately, there are no Brisnet speed figures for horses in foreign races. Therefore, Mendelssohn’s speed estimate in the model only reflects the single speed figure of 91 from Nov. 3rd, 2017. In this instance, a proxy speed figure for Mendelssohn for his UAE win can be used by looking at his Beyer figure for that race, which was 106. This was one less than Justify’s 107 that he earned in the SantaAnita Derby. By extrapolation, 113 works as a good proxy Brisnet figure for Mendelssohn, in that it’s one less than Justify’s 114 in the Santa Anita Derby. After entering 113 and 91 in the first and second positions for Mendelssohn on the Speed sheet and recalculating the sheet, go to the Combined sheet and hit on “Calculate”. This will give accurate results for the Kentucky Derby. As seen below, the results show that Justify has a slight edge over Mendelssohn at around 4-1 odds. This compares to what is being seen in the futures betting on the two favorites as of Tuesday, May 1.