By Regarding the BRIS single data file for Churchill Down’s Saturday card, featuring the Kentucky Derby, be aware that there is only one speed figure for Mendelssohn in the 12th race and that is not for his spectacular UAE Derby win. Unfortunately, there are no Brisnet speed figures for horses in foreign races. Therefore, Mendelssohn’s speed estimate in the model only reflects the single speed figure of 91 from Nov. 3rd, 2017. In this instance, a proxy speed figure for Mendelssohn for his UAE win can be used by looking at his Beyer figure for that race, which was 106. This was one less than Justify’s 107 that he earned in the SantaAnita Derby. By extrapolation, 113 works as a good proxy Brisnet figure for Mendelssohn, in that it’s one less than Justify’s 114 in the Santa Anita Derby. After entering 113 and 91 in the first and second positions for Mendelssohn on the Speed sheet and recalculating the sheet, go to the Combined sheet and hit on “Calculate”. This will give accurate results for the Kentucky Derby. As seen below, the results show that Justify has a slight edge over Mendelssohn at around 4-1 odds. This compares to what is being seen in the futures betting on the two favorites as of Tuesday, May 1.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 