Preakness Stakes

With Bolt d’Oro opting to pass on the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown is shaping up to be a lopsided affair in favor of Kentucky Derby Champion, Justify. Only Derby runner-up, Good Magic, realistically is poised to challenge, who, despite never leading in the race, finished a dogged two lengths back in the mud. Coming in as a new shooter, Tampa Bay Derby winner, Quip, has the potential to hit the board, as does Lone Sailor, who benefited from a rail trip in the Kentucky Derby to capture 8th. However, both fall well short of the two favorites to warrant any serious win consideration and will likely be underlays, considering their theoretical odds are 19-1. Bravazo could surprise after an excellent effort in the Kentucky Derby, which saw him in fourth position after the far turn, only to flatten out for sixth. Observers have noted that the horse traveled forty-four feet more in the Derby than Justify did from taking a wide trip for most of the race. With a smaller field of nine contenders, Bravazo is expected to be closer to the pace this time, which should put him more in contention down the stretch. But at 25-1 in the futures odds, he is expensive even as a long-shot according to the model.