Month: August 2018

Saratoga was in focus for horse players last Saturday, featuring seven G1 races, including the $1.25 mil. Travers stakes for three-year-olds over 1 1/4 mi. on dirt. Unlike the previous Breeders Cup Qualifying race for three-year-olds in the Haskell, where the Handicap Wizard predicted the winner in Good Magic, the model ranked Gronkowski best this time. The horse did not win, and it is important to know why in order to understand the limitations of the model. Gronkowski had only one speed figure from its last race, which happened to be the highest in the field at 107. Consequently, there was no data to simulate with the horse; and unless the other horses had simulated speed figures that exceeded 107, a number that appeared dubious on its face because of the low E1 and LP figures that factored into it, Gronkowski would have had a 100% speed estimate, which is exactly what happened. This is a rare occurence and shows the pitfalls of applying the HW to a race with scant data, as there was with Gronkowski and Mendelsohn with three data points, who ended up placing 2nd. Even so, Catholic Boy’s win was not improbable, as the program rated his winning percentage fourth best at 10.26%, which was in-line with his post-time odds of 8-1. The other two top-three finishers, Mendelsohn and Bravazo, the HW rated in the top six according to WP.

Woodbine is a track where the Handicap Wizard has generally performed well. The results of Saturday’s races were no different, with the program picking winners in five of eight non-maiden races (e.g. races 2,3,4,7,8) including in the $175K G2 Play King Stakes over 7f on turf. According to the model, it was a close contest between #4 Mr. Havercamp, #5 Hording Gold and #2 La Sardane, with only 2.0% percentage points separating the top three. Mr. Havercamp prevailed, paying $3.80.

The big score was in the 7th race, a $16K claiming race over 6f on dirt, in which the program had #7 Majesic Slew heavily favored with a 42.61% winning estimate,  despite having long odds of 7-1. The reason the horse was an underdog in the public’s view was due to the horse posting sub-par or even poor final speed figures in its last two races, the last being just 60 compared to a field average in the high 70s. Through its simulation approach, the Handicap Wizard is able to measure a horse’s potential speed versus other horses in the field, where a bad speed figure in the last race does not automatically disqualify it. Going back four races, Majestic Slew had posted a final speed figure of 90 and five plus 90 figures before that, which the program took into account. In this case, the HW nailed it, with Majestic Slew paying $14.90 for the win. It also had the tri-fecta horses in the top four, with the $2 tri-fecta paying $220.00.

As a note, among the three other non-maiden races on Saturday at Woodbine, two of them had scant data, specifically, the 6th with 0 data integrity and the 10th with only 0.5 data integrity. These are races where the program has little or nothing to assess and therefore, should not be applied. Excluding these two, the HW success rate at Woodbine on Saturday was 5/6 or 83%.

As far as other stakes races on Saturday, the Handicap Wizard predicted the exacta in the $1 million G1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 mi. on dirt at Del Mar with #5 Accelerate and #7 Pavel. It also picked the winner in the $300K G2 Lake Placid over 1 1/2 mi. at Saratoga, #6 Rushing Fall at 6-5.

In another stakes race this Saturday, the Handicap Wizard predicted Neepawa to win the $400K Breeders Stakes for three-year olds at Woodbine at 1 1/2 mi. on turf. Neepawa won in convincing fashion by three lengths, paying $6.80.

The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the exacta in today’s $75K Barely Even Stakes at Gulfstream at 1 mi. on turf with #9 Spanish Harlem first and #6 Oola Gal second. The model’s third choice, #8 Amaluna, came in fourth. The #2 exacta paid $26.80.