The WP calculation showed its strength again today, August 11, in race 10 at Woodbine, a $25K claimer over 1 1/16 mi. on the main track. In a field of seven, Divine Grace at 6-1 was the 4th favorite according to the live odds, with Malibu Wood first at 1-1. Yet, Divine Grace had the highest Winning Percentage in the race at 20%. Despite running last until the far turn, he broke through the pack and surged wide to defeat Malibu Wood easily down the stretch. Win paid $15.80.
While many handicappers prefer to use speed figures in making their wagering selections, the Winning Percentage calculation in the model often reveals value in a horse that has been overlooked by the betting public. That was true in the 7th race today, August 10th, at Saratoga, which saw Lady Joan under jockey, Luis Saez, defeat four other horses, including the live odds favorite, Empress of the Nile, at 1-1. It is fair to say that Lady Joan at 8-1 odds was not considered a serious contender because of her lack of late speed in a race that favored late speed at a distance of 1 3/8 mi. However, Lady Joan had the highest Winning Percentage at 28%, which would have made her fair value around 3-1, if based on that metric alone. Remember that WP is also a measure of class and finishing strength. That indicates the horse had significant value in the race. As it turns out, Lady Joan went wire-to-wire and was able to hold off challenges by Empress of the Nile and Lady Blue down the stretch to win by a neck. The win paid $18.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 