Month: August 2018

As a way of achieving profitability, the ROI calculation had a big score today in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $20K claiming race over 1 1/16 mi. on the turf. Judging by the live odds, it appeared to be a lopsided race favoring False Accusation at 1-2 odds. However, Arpinella was showing good value for his 14-1 price with a positive expected ROI of 159%. Arpinella did not disappoint, holding off three other horses, including 40-1 long-shot Schweets, to win by half a length. The win paid $29.60. The $2 exacta paid $852.20!

The Handicap Wizard had some nice results today with higher stakes races at Del Mar. Like with the Woodbine result below, the WP calculation had it right again in the 7th, a $80K optional claiming race on turf, with #4 Pulpit Rider at 11-1, where he defeated #1 Kodiak West at 3-2 and #3 Luminoso at 5-2. Pulpit Rider was also the top selection according to the Combined Estimate in the model with a 29% winning probability. As a heavy overlay, Pulpit Rider had an expected ROI of 266%. The win paid $25.

In the 9th race, another $80K optional claimer on turf, the model’s top selection, #3 One Fast Broad, made it look easy at 4-1 odds, coming five wide around the far turn to run down the field in the final stretch. Kudos to Gary Stevens for the nice trip. The win paid $10.20.

The WP calculation showed its strength again today, August 11, in race 10 at Woodbine, a $25K claimer over 1 1/16 mi. on the main track. In a field of seven, Divine Grace at 6-1 was the 4th favorite according to the live odds, with Malibu Wood first at 1-1. Yet, Divine Grace had the highest Winning Percentage in the race at 20%. Despite running last until the far turn, he broke through the pack and surged wide to defeat Malibu Wood easily down the stretch. Win paid $15.80.

While many handicappers prefer to use speed figures in making their wagering selections, the Winning Percentage calculation in the model often reveals value in a horse that has been overlooked by the betting public. That was true in the 7th race today, August 10th, at Saratoga, which saw Lady Joan under jockey, Luis Saez, defeat four other horses, including the live odds favorite, Empress of the Nile, at 1-1. It is fair to say that Lady Joan at 8-1 odds was not considered a serious contender because of her lack of late speed in a race that favored late speed at a distance of 1 3/8 mi. However, Lady Joan had the highest Winning Percentage at 28%, which would have made her fair value around 3-1, if based on that metric alone. Remember that WP is also a measure of class and finishing strength. That indicates the horse had significant value in the race. As it turns out, Lady Joan went wire-to-wire and was able to hold off challenges by Empress of the Nile and Lady Blue down the stretch to win by a neck. The win paid $18.20.

The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted Diversify to win the $1.2 mil. G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga last Saturday, while also picking the exacta with Mind Your Biscuits coming in second. The model’s 3rd pick, Tapwrit, finished a close fourth in the race. On the same card, the Handicap Wizard also picked Uni to win the $100K Fasig-Tipton De La Rose stakes in the 5th over the heavy odds favorite, Precieuse.