In keeping with Bob Baffert’s praise of him, McKinzie showed today that he is still one of the best three-year olds by winning the Pennsylvania Derby in no contest fashion. The top three horses in the model by winning estimate went off as the three live odds favorites, with McKinzie being the biggest underlay at 2-1, followed by Hofburg a close second at 5-2. Bravazo’s price was near fair value at 9-2. The final order was McKinzie 1st, Axelrod 2nd, Trigger Warning 3rd and Hofburg 4th.
After a six month lay-off due to an unspecified leg-injury, McKinzie out of the Baffert barn makes his long awaited return in the $1 million Pennsylania Derby for three-year olds at Parx this afternoon. Featuring a field of ten, including show finisher in the G1 Traverse and place finisher in the G1 Haskell, Bravazo, the Handicap Wizard has the race a close contest between Hofburg, who was winner of the $100K Curlin at Saratago in late July, McKinzie and Bravazo.
Commenting on McKinzie, Baffert said this week, “He was like, the best 3-year-old in the country. He has shown me how good a horse he is in the mornings. We are still very high on him. Hopefully, he will break well and we will see if he still has it.” For his part, Wayne Lukas, the trainer of Bravazo, had the following to say about his horse: “If one horse is going to travel he’d be the one, he’s traveled more than anybody. He’s traveled a lot. He’s been a picture of consistency really, looking at his races he’s danced every dance, but he’s gotten stronger and heavier and I think more focused. I think he’ll run a big one. We’re going through the same thing like Will Take Charge. He made all the dances too. I look for him to run a bang up race, but I don’t by any means think this is an easy race for him. It’s very competitive. It turned out tough, but every time you put up a million dollars they’ll show up.”
The model is giving a slight edge to Hofburg because of speed, while Bravazo has the highest winning percentage coming in.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 