Month: November 2018

The Handicap Wizard had a good result today at Delmar, with its top selection winning three out five non maiden races, including the 6th and 8th besides the already mentioned 1st race. In the 6th race—a $40K optional claimer over 1 mile on dirt—the program hit the tri-fecta with its top three selections. The order went Kershaw at 5-2, Popular Kid at 5-1 and Jungle Warfare at 7-2. There were two other horses—Giant Influence and Sheer Flatters—whose odds at 9-2 were in the same upper tier.  The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $30.65.

In the 8th race—a $16K claimer over 6f on dirt—the odds favorite, Spokane Eagle, won at 2-1. The horse was near fair value compared to its winning estimate of 27%. The 5th and 9th races were not considered, the former because of scant data and the latter because of the short 5f distance.

Race 1 at Del Mar, an $62.5K optional claimer for three-year olds at 1 mi. on the turf, today again illustrated the value of looking at speed relative to risk, as discussed in the last entry for the Parx race. Despite having the lowest winning percentage in the field and therefore, the least class in the race, Zaffinah had a superior final speed estimate versus the other horses at 62.00%, while showing a Coefficient of Variation or risk of only 2%. This meant the most confidence could be placed in Zaffinah’s speed, whose odds on a SPD basis were fairly valued below 1-1. The Handicap Wizard had him about 2-1 according to the total estimate. Yet, the horse went off at live odds of 9-2, making him an underlay fourth favorite behind English Dancer at 3-1, Flammeta at 7-2 and Pulpit Rider at 4-1. Zaffinah won it down the stretch by neck, holding off a late charging Pulpit Rider. This is precisely the type of setup in terms of speed, risk, and odds that a handicapper should be looking for. Zaffinah paid $11.40 for the win.

In race 9 at Parx today, a $7,500 claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt, there was a textbook handicapping result, which illustrates well the value of the program. In a ten horse field the Handicap Wizard had Extrasexymazeratti rated highest with a 34.04% winning probability. This compared to post-time odds of 3-1, making the horse an underlay. Upon a closer look at its metrics, the horse showed superior final and late speed estimates of 53% and 78.3%, respectively. On a speed basis alone, the horse was fair valued at 1-1 or less. At the same time, the Coefficient of Variation (CV)  associated with the final speed estimate was 4%, making the estimate very reliable. And this was exactly how the race went. After racing mid-pack at the quarter mile mark, Extrasexymazeratti turned it on to cut the lead down to four lengths from six by the half mile pole. The horse hit his stride for the rest of the race, flying by the leaders around the far turn before going on to win by four lengths. His late speed was the difference in the race. In addition to selecting the winning horse, the Handicap Wizard had the order of the superfecta correct with its top four selections.

Pro-Handicap Version 3.0 is now available for purchase and download on the PURCHASE page. This version gives a more complete overview of each race by providing additional speed figures, including estimates of early and late pace figures, a risk metric for measuring the variability of speed figures, and other useful data like finishes, final odds and beaten by lengths. The MAIN sheet has been enhanced with a host of data and graphs for Projected 1st Call and rankings by total estimate.

At final odds of 5-2, five-year old, Accelerate, won the $6 million Breeder Cup Classic, giving trainer, John Stadler, his first win in a Breeders Cup race after forty-four tries.  It was the first Breeders Cup Classic victory for jockey, Joel Rosario. Accelerate held off late charging Gunnevera, who finished 5th in the same race last year, while 2018 Dubai World Cup winner, Thundersnow, came in third. The Handicap Wizard had Accelerate as its second selection after West Coast (with Collected being scratched), who succumbed to a hot pace of 22.63 for the first quarter mile and 46:46 for the half mile. The top three finishers in the race were among the top five selections in the model. From a forecasting standpoint, the results of the race were well predictable. Accelerate had the 2nd most speed in the race according to simulation with a 29.9% winning estimate. Gunnevera had arguably the most late speed in the field for the 1 1/4 mi distance, since Mind Your Biscuit’s late pace figures were mostly for sprinter routs (see LP metric below). Thundersnow had the second highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 17.32% coming in, second only to West Coast at 27.2%. Both Gunnevera and Thundersnow went off at big-odds, with Gunnevera paying $21.80 for the place and Thundersnow $8.00 for the show.

By contrast, the Brisnet Prime Power rankings predicted only one top-three finisher from its top-five, and that was Accelerate. It had McKinzie 2nd, who came in 12th and Catholic Boy 3rd, who finished 13th. The two other horses were West Coast and Mind Your Biscuits, which the Handicap Wizard also had in its top five.