Race 1 at Del Mar, an $62.5K optional claimer for three-year olds at 1 mi. on the turf, today again illustrated the value of looking at speed relative to risk, as discussed in the last entry for the Parx race. Despite having the lowest winning percentage in the field and therefore, the least class in the race, Zaffinah had a superior final speed estimate versus the other horses at 62.00%, while showing a Coefficient of Variation or risk of only 2%. This meant the most confidence could be placed in Zaffinah’s speed, whose odds on a SPD basis were fairly valued below 1-1. The Handicap Wizard had him about 2-1 according to the total estimate. Yet, the horse went off at live odds of 9-2, making him an underlay fourth favorite behind English Dancer at 3-1, Flammeta at 7-2 and Pulpit Rider at 4-1. Zaffinah won it down the stretch by neck, holding off a late charging Pulpit Rider. This is precisely the type of setup in terms of speed, risk, and odds that a handicapper should be looking for. Zaffinah paid $11.40 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 