By While the market prices of the horses are supposed to reflect the public and track’s best guess who will win a race, the market on occasion can be dead wrong, as occurred at Race 8 at Gulfstream on Saturday, a $47K allowance race at 5f on turf for three-year olds and up. According to the post-time odds, #6 Razorback Lady at 35-1 had less than a 3% implied probability of winning. This had mostly to due with the horse’s recent performance, where it comparably had the lowest final speed figure in the field. However, three, four and five races back Razorback Lady had shown significant speed strength, posting three final speed figures in the mid nineties. As the Handicap Wizard accounts for the range of horses speed figures in its simulation, it judged the horse to have the highest potential speed with a winning speed estimate of 51%, albeit, accompanied by a somewhat high risk measure or Coefficient of Variation of 13%. With a total winning estimate of 30%, Razorback Lady was as large of an underlay as one will ever see using the Handicap Wizard program. Despite having higher than average risk, Razorback Lady proved to be the biggest winner on the card at Gulfstream on Saturday, paying $75 for a $2 wager. This race also shows that the program does not select just chalks, as Razorback Lady was the 2nd biggest long-shot on the board.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 