Racing fans had reason to be of good cheer today the day after Christmas with the opener of the San Anita track, featuring two premier races in the 8th and 9th with the San Antonio and Malibu Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. and 7f, respectively. The Malibu showcased several top horses, including Baffert trained McKinzie, who won the G1 Pennsylania Derby two back in September, Axelrod, Solomini and Ax Man. The Handicap Wizard gave McKinzie a sizable advantage with a total winning estimate of 36%, thanks to both a superior speed and class rating. This was close to the price the horse went off at 6-5. As the favorite, McKinzie bounced back from his disappointing showing in the Breeders Cup Classic in November to win by seven lengths, paying $4.40. Identity Politics ran a giant race to capture second at 13-1, but even at that those long odds the horse was expensive according to the model.
The San Antonio turned out to be a more competitive affair, with the Handicap Wizard calling it a close contest between Battle of Midway, Dabster and Gift Box. At 3-2 post-time odds versus a winning estimate of 35% by the model, Battle of Midway ran a perfect race and his heart out only to come up a neck short to Gift Box, who surprised at 6-1. That was close to how the model rated him at 13% win probability. Dabster came in third, while all three finished within one and a half lengths of one another.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 