Race 2 and 3 at Aqueduct, Dec. 28

Races 2 and 3 at Aqueduct today offered a handicapping case study of when to take the favorite according to the model and when not to. In race 2, a $25K maiden claimer at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt, Run for Boston was the leader in the field with a winning estimate of 49% versus post-time odds of 7-5. While the horse projected high total speed and had a dominant winning percentage, his speed figures looked vulnerable underneath at the E1 and LP level combined, where he was second at only 22%. On this basis, there was reason to be cautious about him. However, one horse who had comparatively good value according to E1+LP—a custom calculation only to be found in the Handicap Wizard—was Local Edition at 5-1, whose 26.8% by that metric was top in the field. His front running style also was advantageous on the sloppy track at Aqueduct, where he factored to be on the lead. This was exactly how the race went, with Local Edition finding his stride around the far turn after stalking two back to the half mile pole and by the final stretch he never looked back, paying $12.20 for the win.

In the third race, a $68K maiden special weight race for three-year olds and upward at 1 mi., Hero’s Welcome was a solid 2-1 favorite or 36% winning percentage according to the model, which gave him some value against the 5-2 live odds price. Unlike Run for Boston above, there were no cracks in Hero’s Welcome underneath speed figures, projecting a 46.4% estimate by the E1+LP metric, which put his fair value closer to 1-1  than 5-2. With most of Hero’s Welcome’s speed coming late, the horse kept it close through the opening half mile, only trailing by 4 lengths, before he catapulted around the final turn in a five-wide bid to win by 3 1/2 lengths. In this case, the horse’s speed relative to his odds was more trustworthy and it paid off $7.70.