Month: January 2019

After Accelerate’s win in the Breeders Cup Classic last November at Churchill, the Pegasus World Cup Invitational this Saturday at Gulfstream over 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt is shaping up to be a lopsided affair according to the model. None of the other horses match Accelerate’s speed, receiving a 67.7% winning speed estimate from the Handicap Wizard, except City of Light at 19%, who for his part put up a 111 final speed figure in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. This was better than Accelerate’s 106 in the BCC, albeit with that race run at a longer distance of 1 1/4 mi. As a closer, Gunnevera is the other main contender in this race after charging impressively down the stretch in the BCC to nearly overtake Accelerate at the wire, who won by just one length. Gunnevera rates favorably class-wise to Accelerate following place finishes in the BCC, the G1 Woodward in September and a show finish in last year’s Pegasus World Cup. His winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, is nearly identical to Accelerate’s at 29.9%. The question is whether he can turn it on sooner to close the gap in this shorter 1 1/8 mi. race. Irad Ortiz Jr. will have his work cut out for him on Gunnevera against Joel Rosario, who rode Accelerate to victory in the Breeder’s Cup Classic and is back aboard again. The wildcard in this race may be late running and Pletcher trained, Audible, who has the strongest LP figures in the field (45.5% LP estimate). Though he disappointed with a place finish in his last start in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday at 1 1/16 mi. at GP in December, Audible could be expected to return to form, given this is his third race off a long layoff in 2018, when he was one of the top three year-olds along with Good Magic and Triple Crown Winner, Justify.

 

 

The Handicap Wizard made it two-for-two in stakes races at Gulfstream Park today by winning with its top selection, 6-5 Supercommittee, in race 4, a $16K optional claiming race at 1 mi on dirt. The program also got the place horse correct in 7-5 Reagan’s Odyssey to hit the exacta. Both horses were overlays according to the model, but there was no good value elsewhere. Supercommittee paid $4.60 for the win.

The model made the hat-trick in the next claiming race in the 6th, a $6.25K claiming race over 6f on dirt for filies and mares four-years old and up, with Go Go Jack, albeit at short odds of 3-5. The Handicap Wizard likewise rated the horse strongly, assigning a 35% total winning probability, which equates to under 2-1 odds. Still, anything can happen in a field of 10 with most horses having high variances in their speed figures, indicative of the low stakes nature of the race. Go Go Jack paid $3.60 for the win.

Though the Handicap Wizard did not get a fourth straight non-maiden win in the 8th race, which was won by long-shot, Our Pride at 19-1, it did get a fourth win in the 9th with 5-2 Abiding Star, who despite having two troubled trips in its last two races, showed his superior speed rating and 2nd best class rating by going wire to wire over 1 mi. on the turf in this $35K claiming race for four-year olds. Abiding Star‘s odds were fluctuating around 5-1 until right before post-time, when they dropped sharply to 5-2 at the start. Abiding Star paid $7.80 for the win. The model also correctly predicted 9-2 Black Sea for place as its second selection, with the exacta paying $49.80. The market and Gulfstream track handicappers’ favorite, Sycamore Lane at 2-1 with John Velazquez, failed to finish in the money. On the day, the Handicap Wizard’s top selection won 4 out of 5 (80%) claiming races with a ROI of 138%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While it is recommended to apply the Handicap Wizard to races that have high data integrity, it can still be effective with less than optimal data sets, like when a horse only has one or two speed figures. That was the case with race 1 at Gulfstream Park Today, a $12.5K claiming race for four-year olds at 1 mi. on dirt, concerning Tale of Fire, which the model had as its top selection with a 25% winning probability. This exactly matched the implied winning probability of the horse’s market price of 3-1. However, the horse showed high risk according to its 24% Coefficient of Variation. Upon a closer look at Tale of Fire‘s starts, the horse had an uneven history, posting a 64 final speed figure in his first maiden race at Fort Erie in July 2017, before the horse changed trainer and then ran in Dubai in 2018. In its most recent start, the horse placed in a $16K claiming race at Delmar in mid October, posting a 89 speed figure. This was highest among all the horses in the field. Despite Tale of Fire having a large variance, which was based on only two data points, the Handicap Wizard judged the horse second classiest and second speediest, which gave it a slight edge over the live odds favorite Takedown at 8-5. This was how the race went, with Tale of Fire leading for much of the race before dueling with 5-2 Discreet Heat, who also had strong figures, down the stretch. Takedown proved the classier horse by digging in at the rail into the wire, winning by a head. The win paid $8.00.

The race shows why it is important to still analyze the underlying data to understand why the program is saying what it is. Because of the time between Tale of Fire‘s first and last starts, it was unlikely to be the risky horse that the program was indicating and that its last start was representative of its current strength. The horse was fully valued at 3-1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In addition to the program picking the winner with its top selection in the 3rd with Twocubanbrothers at 10-1, the Handicap Wizard had two other winners out of the seven non-maiden races at Tampa today. The second was 3-5 Thulean in the 5th, an $8K claiming race at 1m. 70y on dirt for four-year olds and up, and the third was 8-5 Wish Upon in the 8th, a $25K claiming race at 1 mi on turf for fillies and mares four-years old and up. Collectively, the program’s ROI for the seven non-maiden races at Tampa was 133%. As is more often the case than not at Tampa, this was not a chalk favoring card, with there being 6 winners in 10 races at $20 or more.

 

 

 

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result in the early going today at Tampa Bay in race 3, a $32K optional claiming race for four-year olds and up at 1 mi 40y, with 10-1 Twocubunbrothers as its top selection with a total winning probability of 25%. The horse led until past the three-quarter pole, when it was overtaken by 5-2 Salsa’s Return, only to fight back to retake the lead before the wire. The market discounted the horse for its last race, when it posted a subpar 66 final speed figure. That was not a detracting factor for the Handicap Wizard, however, which takes all of a horse’s races into consideration. It judged the horse to have the most speed in the race with a winning speed estimate of 43%, making a significant underlay on that basis. Twocubunbrothers paid $23.80 for the win.