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Month: January 2019
The Handicap Wizard had winners in three out of six non-maiden races at Santa Anita today, including the $100K Sham Stakes (G3) in the 9th at 1 mi. on dirt for three-year olds. Against a 3-5 live odds favorite in Coliseum, the Handicap Wizard had Gun Metal Gray with Mike Smith riding as its top selection with a winning probability of 31%. This made him a slight underlay versus 7-2 odds. Coliseum was the heavy live odds favorite for having won its last and only race at $53K stakes and for having had the highest final speed figure among all the horses in their last with a 95, while posting the fastest LP time with 102. Yet, the program rated Gun Metal Gray as the stronger horse, owing to a dominating 44% final speed estimate rating. As it turned out, Gun Metal Gray exploded down the stretch to win decisively, paying $9.40.
The Handicap Wizard also predicted the winner in the other stakes race on the card, the $200K (G2) San Gabriel Stakes at 1 1/8 mi on turf for four-year olds and upward, with its top choice of Next Shares. The program had the horse rated strongly with a 41% winning probably, thanks to spectacular winning percentage of 51%. The horse measured up to its class, paying $5.20 for the win.
The third race in which the program had the winner was the 7th, a $57K allowance race at 1 1/16 mi. for four year-olds. It had 3-1 Popular Kid as its top choice with a 30% winning probability, before the final odds were squeezed down to near 5-2.
Finally, the program’s 2nd selection, Invasion Looming, won the 1st race at 6-1 odds.
The Handicap Wizard is not as much a horse selection program as it is a probabilistic model and a system of thought about horse racing. There is no one right answer all the time, because the variables are always changing. What works in one race may not in another. But there are universal truths that remain constant. One is that speed in its various forms wins races and the other is that classier horses win more than non-winning horses. Sometimes the classier horses do not have final speed figures that measure up against other horses, because they only went fast enough to win their races and not faster, even though they are capable of a faster speed. When these horses win, they generally do so at higher than average odds. This was the case again today in race 9 at Gulfstream, a $50K Allowance race run on the turf at 1 mi for four-years and upwards. In terms of the field of nine horses, the race did not have a clear favorite. The lowest odds were 3-1 with County Court. County Court had the 2nd highest final speed estimate by the model at 27%, but its E1 and LP figures rated low against other horses. In Too Much Data, on the other hand, you have a horse with the highest winning percentage adjusted for stakes at almost 20%, equating to fair value odds of 4-1. The horse also showed strength in the E1+LP metric, though its final speed estimate was low. What was also favorable about the horse is its risk or Coefficient of Variance of 2%. So besides being the classiest horse, Too Much Data had the lowest risk in winning the most. It didn’t hurt either that Irad Ortiz, Jr. was the rider! These factors made for a good setup and the horse was getting at least fair value odds at 7-2. It took the whole race to find out, but Too Much Data delivered in the end, thanks to a burst of speed halfway down the stretch, to edge out long-shot, Valycove, at 17-1. Too Much Data paid $9.00 for the win.
The 5th race at Santa Anita yesterday—a $57K allowance race at 6.5f on the turf for three-year olds and upward—is illustrative of the value to be gained from a model like the Handicap Wizard, rather than relying upon the market’s evaluation of a horse’s strength. According to the implied probabilities in the live odds, North Country Guy at 7-5 or 34% implied winning chance was the favorite in a race that was otherwise up for grabs. The next highest odds were 5-1 with Mesut. However, North Country Guy’s odds were not statistically supported. The program assigned the horse only a 4% winning probability as a result of a zero final speed estimate and a winning estimate by money results of 5.6%. Hence, this race was one in which to bet against the favorite. There were three other main contenders, Jungle Warfare, who was the model favorite, Paddock Pick and Count Alexander. All three had final speed estimates that rated higher than North Country Guy’s. Count Alexander had the highest E1 and LP figures combined at 23.3% estimate and the strongest winning percentage by results to boot at 20%. By either measure, Count Alexander was undervalued at 6-1, when he should have been closer to 4-1. The horse also had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variation of 5%. In the end, Count Alexander overtook Paddock Pick in a 3 wide bid down the stretch, while holding off a late charging Jungle Warfare and jockey, Kent Desormeaux, to win by a length. The running order went by strongest according to the E1+LP metric. The Handicap Wizard had the three money finishers in its top four selections, with a $0.50 tri-fecta paying $200.75.
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