The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the winner of the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds, run at 1 1/16 mi for three-year olds, with its top selection in War of Will. It nearly had the exacta as well, with its 3rd selection, Country House, coming in second.
It also predicted the winner of the G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes for three-year old fillies in the 11th race at the same distance with Serengeti Empress.
The Handicap Wizard predicted the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa yesterday, run at 1 1/16 mi. on dirt for three-year olds, with its top selection of Well Defined at 7-1. It also had the winner in the Sun Coast Stakes for three-year old fillies with Point of Honor at 5-2.
The $150K Swale Stakes (G3) at GP, run at 7f on dirt for three-year olds, turned out to be a contest between #5 Call Paul’s class, who was the favorite at 3-2, and #9 Zenden’s speed. At 9-1 Zenden was rated by the market mid-pack, with four horses having lower odds than him. The Handicap Wizard rated him strongest with a 24% winning probability, owing to a 35% winning speed estimate. In the end, Call Paul’s class proved superior, but just barely, in that he won by a length to a horse that had only a 10% implied winning probability compared to his own probability of 27%. In all fairness, the data integrity of the race was low at .27, meaning there was scant data for the Handicap Wizard to assess, yet it nearly had the exacta order correct, #5 and #9, which paid $40.40.
As shown in the previous race at GP, the Handicap Wizard is very good at identifying the speed in a race, even when the market is discounting a horse for sub-par recent performance. In race 6 at Tampa today, a $22K allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for four-year olds, the Handicap Wizard rated And Won at 2-1 speediest, followed by Cheyenne’s Colonel at 17-1. With those odds the market was giving Cheyenne’s Colonel an implied winning probability less than 6%. Yet, the horse nearly pulled it off, leading for most of the race, only to be edged out at the wire by And Won by half a length. The race exemplifies the strength of the simulation algorithm by correctly predicting the exacta, which paid $76.40.
As much as it is nice to see the top selection in the model win, it often happens that the top horse gets below fair value odds, in which case it becomes a losing bet. In race 6 at GP today, the second selection, Ambassador Jim, was the better choice at 5-1. Despite not having much success in terms of money finishes in his previous races, Ambassador Jim was rated the speediest horse in the field by the Handicap Wizard with a winning speed estimate of 30.8%. On that basis his value was closer to 2-1 or 5-2 than 5-1. Thanks to his superb jockeying, Paco Lopez found a seam for his horse coming around the far turn from the inside that launched him into the clear. With a clear path the horse was able to accelerate down the stretch to win by a length on the turf, paying $13.40. Without the calculations and processing power of the Handicap Wizard, a horse like Ambassador Jim would have gone overlooked and was this time by the market.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 