The difference in whether one is profitable in handicapping horse racing often comes down to identifying and realizing value. But what constitutes value can change from race to race based on the different dynamics of each horse. For one race, one might be able to find value in the speed estimate of a horse relative to its odds, either in the final speed estimate or in the E1, E2 and LP components or in combination; in another race, it might be in the Winning Percentage (WP) calculation, which signifies a horse’s class strength relative to the field. Race 7 at Gulfstream today, a $25K claiming race for four-year olds an upward, was an example of where the WP calculation allowed value to be realized in the #4 horse, Face of Victory. A Pletcher horse, #5 Driven By Thunder, was the live odds favorite at 8-5, owing to a dominant final speed estimate of 40.4% and 49% and 67% estimates for E1 and E2. However, the distance of the race at 1 1/16 mi. on turf seemed a poor fit for Driven By Thunder, considering that it had no late speed with a 0% LP estimate. The horse was not a fair bet anyway with a negative expected ROI of 19% according to the model, making it imperative to look elsewhere. While not showing stellar speed, Face of Victory was comparably strong to Driven By Thunder in terms of winning percentage at 15.3% versus 17%, yet the horse was at long odds of 15-1. That meant the horse was being priced at more than a 50% discount according to the winning metric, representing significant value. The race saw Driven By Thunder and Face of Victory both bolting out of the gate and running side-by-side around the first turn, before Driven By Thunder took a short lead. After running the opening quarter in 22.40, Driven By Victory maintained the hot pace for the half mile, completing it in 45.60, while Face of Victory stalked two lengths back and #1 Flow Motion at 5-2 closed the gap to the leaders to a length and a half. Around the far turn, the three horses ran in tandem, before Face of Victory found an extra gear in a three-wide bid to overtake Driven By Thunder on his inside. With Driven By Thunder giving up the ghost after a grueling pace, Face of Victory charged ahead to the lead in the stretch, as Flow Motion continued to hound him on the outside. But Flow Motion could not get any closer than one length behind Face of Victory, who finished the 1 1/16 mi. in a fast time of 1:40:51. Face of Victory paid $32.20 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 