Continuing with the theme of identifying and realizing value, race 2 at Gulfstream today, a $25K claiming race run at 6f for three-year-old fillies on the dirt, presented an opportunity with the #5 horse, Noncents. The horse was being discounted by the market with 13-1 odds, yet upon closer inspection of her E1 and E2 estimates in simulation, 51.1% and 60%, she clearly had the most speed in the race. The two favorites, #4 Midnight Miracle at 8-5 and #8 Stronger Kat at 3-1 did not compare in these categories. Even with a combined winning probability of 20% according to the model, putting her fair value at 4-1, Noncents was getting more than three times her value in terms of odds and therefore, deserved heavy betting consideration. The race unfolded with #3 Mertz taking an early lead, who was second in the E1 category, while Noncents shadowed her on her outside. Mertz maintained the lead through the half-mile point and around the far turn, before Noncents took command down the stretch to win by one half length over #1 Elissas Secret, who also ran well. Noncents paid $29.00 for the win. By having confidence in the speed estimates of the Handicap Wizard, which offers precision data through its 1000X simulation engine, one is able to take advantage of these mis-pricings for profit when they appear.
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