By The road to the Kentucky Derby continues this Saturday, March 23rd, through the Fairgrounds with the $1 million Louisiana Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. This contest features Mark Casse trained sensation, War of Will, who under the reins of Tyler Gaffalione has won his last three races, including the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February and the G3 LeComte stakes in January. Hoping to challenge War of Will are Risen Star Stakes runner-up, Country House, who finished two-and-a-half lengths behind War of Will in that race as well as the late running Sueno, who placed behind Supersteed in the Southwest and behind Gunmetal Gray in the Sham Stakes. Other notable contenders include Limonite, who was third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill back in November, and Pletcher Trained, Spinoff, who looks to be the speed in this race.
The Handicap Wizard is favoring War of Will to win, whom it rates highest both in speed and winning percentage with estimates of 34.3% and 20.4%. Its combined winning percentage of 25% puts its fair value around 3-1. Next is Country House, who while having low estimates for E1 and E2, has the highest LP estimate at 51%,. This may bode well for him because of the longer distance of this race. Spinoff has comparably good E1 and E2 estimates to War of Will, but it is unclear given his inexperience at two turns whether he has the stamina to go the entire 1 1/8 mi. Sueno could be the surprise in the race, considering how he closed on Supersteed in the Southwest after being boxed in around the far turn. His final speed figure of 93 underestimates his true speed, which is higher. Look for Sueno to get a good price, with 7-1 being his fair value.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 