By The next race on the Derby trail is this Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, run at 1 1/8 miles on dirt for three-year olds. The contest features three stakes winners in Code of Honor, Harvey Wallbanger and Garter and Tie. However, that is not fully indicative of the talent in this race, which includes the highly touted, Hidden Scroll, from the Bill Mott barn, who wowed in winning his maiden race at Gulfstream at $60K stakes by 14 lengths at the end of January, when he earned a Brisnet final speed figure of 102. Code of Honor won the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at 1 1/16mi. at Gulfstream in early March, holding off a surging Bourbon War at the wire. Harvey Wallbanger defied long odds of 25-1 to win the G2 Holy Bull at 1 1/16 mi. at Gulfstream in February, benefiting from an excellent rail trip that allowed him to overtake Everfast down the stretch, who finished second. Garter and Tie boasts the highest final speed figure in the field at 103, which he received in winning the $75K Smooth Air Stakes at 1 mi. at Gulfstream in December. However, he has had less success in his last two starts, with a 3rd place finish in the $100K Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream in January and a 6th place finish in the Holy Bull.
After changing the weights to 0.15% for E2, to 0.15% for LP and to 0% for E1 to account for the longer distance in this race, the Handicap Wizard is calling the race close between Hidden Scroll and Garter and Tie as favorites. However, because the program calculates its winning speed estimates from simulation that does not factor in the regression both horses have had in their last starts, the combined probabilities of 25% of these horses should be viewed with caution. In the case of Hidden Scroll, the horse is seeing a jockey change to Javier Castellano from Joel Rosario, who arguably ran Hidden Scroll too hard in the opening fractions of the Fountain of Youth, causing the horse to come up short in the end. Castellano won the Florida Derby in 2014 with Constitution. The Handicap Wizard’s third selection, Code of Honor, looks to be a solid choice following his win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He is the class in the race in terms of money finishes and has the lowest risk in the race. Still, he will need to be in top form, if he is going to fend off Bourbon War in the final eighth, who has the strongest LP estimate in the field. The Handicap Wizard rates Bourbon War fourth, but he appears to be the best suited for the 1 1/8 mi. distance of this race.
Another horse that will be charging late is Harvey Wallbanger, who has shown good progression in his five races, posting his best final (95), E2 (100)and LP speed figures (100) in his last start, according to Brisnet. Therefore, the model might be underestimating his potential in this race by rating him as a 6th selection. His winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 15.7% as second highest is likely more indicative of the relative strength of this horse. In an interview with America’s Best Racing, co-owner, Wayne Cutler, praised his horse as one having heart and knowing where the finish line is, while running to the competition. It’s also worth noting that the horse worked 4 furlongs on March 23. In 47.1, finishing 1st of 99 horses.
The last horse worth mentioning is lightly run, Maximum Security, who comes into the race undefeated in three starts at Gulfstream, albeit against allowance competition. It will be the first time he stretches out to two turns under rider, Luis Saez, who is second only to Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Gulfstream jockey standings this year.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 