Having been asked by people for results of the Handicap Wizard, I thought I would post some results of a recent card at Oaklawn from April 25, 2019. The model had four winners with its top selection and another winner with its second selection out of seven non-maiden races. The selections are ranked according to the TOP category or by combined winning probabilities.
Yesterday provided a good set of races that illustrate the benefits of the approach of the Handicap Wizard when analyzing past performance data in conjunction. Race 1 at Gulfstream, a $12.5K maiden race run at 1 1/6 mi. on the turf for three-years and old an up, showed #8 Love Nest and #1 Kitten’s Spa as the live odds favorites. Love Nest was at 1-1, while Kitten’s Spa was 8-5. The data showed Kitten’s Spa having the highest final speed estimate at 56.5% and a strong LP estimate at 49%. However, Kitten’s Spa was winless in three starts, with the stakes declining from the 1st start at $76K to $35K in the 3rd. On the other hand, Love Nest had not only a solid final speed estimate of 33.3%, its component estimates were comparatively stronger in E1 and E2. It also had a much higher TRIO estimate at 62.1%, signifying that its component speed together stacked up very well against those of the other horses. Love Nest had the 2nd highest WP after Indisputably Linked at 24.7% and the highest winning probability overall at 28.24%. The race went as the model predicted, with Love Nest winning. This was a text book case of the Handicap Wizard having the winner with its top selection and the horse performing as it should.
Race 3 at Keeneland, an $82K allowance race at 1 1/2 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up, proved to be a more challenging race in terms of handicapping, but also more rewarding because of how the odds played out. The two live odds favorites were #4 Finess Bere (FR) at 8-5 and #3 Nantucket Red at 2-1. While having the top final speed estimate in the model at 30.6% Finess Bere (FR) was not much of a winning horse at only 9% and its component speed figures were fairly weak against those of the other horses. Nantucket Red had both decent speed and a decent winning percentage, but its LP estimate was weak at only 2.4%, boding ill for him at the distance of 1 1/2 mi. The horse with the highest LP estimate was #6 Vevina at 37.4%. Vevina had the second highest Winning Percentage at 18.4%, which put him at a discount to his 7-1 live odds price. The horse with the highest Winning Percentage was #1 Room to Finish, who won his last race, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. The horse had hit the board in all five of his races, including a race four back at $38K stakes. After tossing the live odds favorites, Vevina and Room to Finish looked to be the best horses here in terms of winning and being able to win at the distance. The 6,1 exacta paid $53.90, while Vevina paid $16.60. This was one race where it required seeing past the total combined probabilities of the model to the strengths of each particular horse for the distance. The two horses that won were the two winningest horses coming into the race, which the model helped identify but the market underestimated in assigning odds of 7-1 and 6-1. In terms of finding value, it’s always a good place to start by looking whether a horse is offered at a discount to its Winning Percentage.
Race 8 at Keeneland, an $81K allowance race at 5 1/2f on the turf for four-year olds, had #4 Fooch and #5 Get Western as the favorites at 5-2 and 3-1. The Handicap Wizard had these two horses as its top selections as well with combined winning probabilities of 23.3% each. #13 Leinster was next at 17%, but what made Leinster appealing is that the horse had the highest final speed figure (BRIS) in the field at 92, which he earned in his last race, a $50K maiden at 6f, in placing second. Of note were his strong E1 and E2 readings of 101 and 104, which were comparable to those of Fooch and Get Western. The reason that Leinster’s last final speed figure was highest is because of the LP figure of 83. Therefore, one could infer that Leinster was probably in the best form of the three coming into the race and would not be tiring late. Even without this assumption, Leinster rated second highest in speed with a final speed estimate of 26.8%. With a winning percentage of 14% and combined winning probability of 17%, Leinster’s fair value was closer to 5-1 than his live odds price of 10-1. Leinster pulled the upset, paying $22.00.
This Saturday features the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, run at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds. The field boasts a number of high caliber horses, including Improbable from the Baffert Barn, the winner of the G1 Los Angeles Futurity in December and the runner-up in the second division of the Rebel Stakes, Obama Beach, winner of the first division of the Rebel Stakes, who defeated the highly touted, Game Winner, also from the Baffert Barn. There is also Long Range Toddy, who shocked Improbable by winning the second division of the Rebel Stakes at long odds. The field is rounded out by Country House, second to War of Will in the Risen Star Stakes, Gray Attempt, the winner of the Smarty Jones, and Galilean, who finished third in the Rebel and first in the California Gold Cup.
The Handicap Wizard is calling the race a close contest between Improbable as the top selection and Omaha Beach as the second selection, with both have total winning probabilities of about 22%. Next is Long Range Toddy at 16% and Tikvin Flew at 10%. Tikvin Flew is the speed in the race along with One Flew South. With Improbable having an edge with his late pace estimate of 27% to Omaha Beach’s 6.2%, he probably is the horse to beat in here given the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Long Range Toddy also has late speed with an estimate of 14% and has the highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, in the field at 24%. Using that metric, he would be offering value at the 5-1 M/L price, whereas Improbable is at a premium at 7-5. Tikvin Flew has value at 30-1 for show.
In another good showing at Keeneland today, the Handicap Wizard picked the winner of race 9, the $300,000 Maker’s 46 mile for four-year olds on turf, with #4 Delta Prince as its top selection. The horse had a combined probability of 37% with a superior 41% winning percentage, adjusted for stakes. At 8-5 Delta Prince was just below the BPPR top ranked horse in #1 Raging Bull at 9-5. After trailing for much of the race, Delta Alive came alive down the stretch under the ride of Javier Castellano and ran down the entire field. Delta Prince paid $5.40.
In a battle between Brisnet Prime Power Rating’s highest ranked horse, Fly (133.25 BPPR) at 3-5 in the 8th race at Gulfstream today, and the HW’s top selection, #6 Ms. Meshak (122.31) at 11-1, the Handicap Wizard proved to be the more accurate model (exponential model), as Meshak won in a romp. Ms. Meshak had a 45% combined winning probability and 68% winning estimate by speed, making her an easy choice to win. She did, paying $25.80.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 