Racing fans will be watching three prep races today in the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby for clues about who will be running at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. The way the Handicap Wizard’s projections will be calculated today for these races is using exponential smoothing, a feature which will be incorporated into the program’s next version, version 4.0, to be released in the near future. Exponential smoothing puts greater weight on the most recent speed figures in calculating means and standard deviations for the simulation. The value of the approach can be seen in its winning speed estimates from last week’s Florida Derby, which saw Maximum Security go-to-wire and maiden, Bodexpress, finish second. The improbable outcome resulted in the $1 exacta paying $257. The winning speed estimates using exponential smoothing had both horses in its top four as the third and fourth selections. Why the horses did not appear higher in the combined winning probabilities is because neither horse had won or even competed in a stakes race before the Florida Derby, causing their winning percentages, adjusted for stakes, to be lower.
Florida Derby
Wood Memorial
Blue Grass Stakes
Santa Anita Derby
Pro-Handicap Analytics 