The Handicap Wizard had winners in five out of nine non-maiden races at Keeneland on Saturday, including the G1 Blue Grass Stakes with Vekoma. This was with the soon to be released exponential model in Version 4.0 with weightings of 0.5% for SPD (final speed winning est.) and WP (winning percentage, adjusted for stakes). The weightings reflect the configurations that were used in the algorithm for the original version of the Handicap Wizard. Version 4.0 will have dual functionality between the model with exponential smoothing and the standard model, which uses equal weighting for all past speed figures in calculating means and standard deviations for simulation. The benefit of exponential smoothing is that, theoretically, it captures the form cycles of the horses by weighing the most recent speed figures higher than latter ones in calculating means and standard deviations. The following results underscore the success of that approach.
However, this does not mean that considering the component speed figures, too, in a race isn’t worthwhile. On the contrary, had one keyed on the LP estimate of #8 Lantiz in the 5th race with a monster 45.8% value in that 1 1/8 mi. race on the turf, one would have found a winner that paid $94.40. Every race is a puzzle with its own set of dynamics, where the results of the main algorithm as well as the component estimates go into solving that puzzle.
Another example was in the 6th race, the G3 Commonwealth run at 7f on dirt for four-year-olds, with #11 Bobby’s Wicked One. At first glance, the horse was rated mid-pack by the Handicap Wizard with a combined winning probability of 7.53%, which was close to how the market was assessing him with odds of 13-1. Yet, despite having a low winning percentage of just 4.7%, the horse had final speed winning estimate of 10.4% and a TRIO winning estimate of 20.0%. The TRIO estimate (found in HW Version 4.0) is a simulation of E1, E2 and LP figures of a horse added together. In this particular case, Bobby’s Wicked One’s components together in simulation stacked up well against those of the other horses, where he rated third below the two favorites, #2 Recruiting Ready and #4 Uncontested. The 20.0% TRIO estimate would equate to fair value odds of 4-1, much less than the 13-1 price the horse was getting in the live odds. You would never see the value of a horse like Bobby’s Wicked One without the simulation engine of the Handicap Wizard revealing such data.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 