This Saturday features the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, run at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds. The field boasts a number of high caliber horses, including Improbable from the Baffert Barn, the winner of the G1 Los Angeles Futurity in December and the runner-up in the second division of the Rebel Stakes, Obama Beach, winner of the first division of the Rebel Stakes, who defeated the highly touted, Game Winner, also from the Baffert Barn. There is also Long Range Toddy, who shocked Improbable by winning the second division of the Rebel Stakes at long odds. The field is rounded out by Country House, second to War of Will in the Risen Star Stakes, Gray Attempt, the winner of the Smarty Jones, and Galilean, who finished third in the Rebel and first in the California Gold Cup.
The Handicap Wizard is calling the race a close contest between Improbable as the top selection and Omaha Beach as the second selection, with both have total winning probabilities of about 22%. Next is Long Range Toddy at 16% and Tikvin Flew at 10%. Tikvin Flew is the speed in the race along with One Flew South. With Improbable having an edge with his late pace estimate of 27% to Omaha Beach’s 6.2%, he probably is the horse to beat in here given the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Long Range Toddy also has late speed with an estimate of 14% and has the highest Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, in the field at 24%. Using that metric, he would be offering value at the 5-1 M/L price, whereas Improbable is at a premium at 7-5. Tikvin Flew has value at 30-1 for show.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 