May 2019 – Pro-Handicap Analytics

Stakes recap at Belmont, Memorial Day, May 27

By handicapwizard on 27 May 201928 May 2019

The Handicap Wizard had winners with its top choices in four out of six graded stakes races at Belmont today, including in the $125K Mike Lee Stakes in the 9th with #6 Blindwillie McTell and in the $200K Commentary Stakes in the 10th with #7 Pat on the Back. Blindwillie McTell paid $7.00, while Pat on the Back paid $6.80. The program hit the exacta in the 9th with #6 Blindwillie McTell and #4 Funny Guy, with the $2 exacta paying $31.80.

9th: Mike Lee Stakes

10th: Commentator Stakes

4th: Bouwerie Stakes

5th: Mt. Vernon Stakes

Handicapping

Paradise Creek Stakes at Belmont, Sat. May 25

By handicapwizard on 25 May 201927 May 2019

The Handicap Wizard had a successful result in the lone stakes race at Belmont today in the 9th with the Paradise Creek Stakes, a $100K race at 7f on the turf for three-year olds. The program hit the exacta with its top two choices of #4 Pole Setter at 4-1 and #5 Pulsate at 16-1. Pole Setter led the race from start to finish, while Pulsate came up late to finish strongly for second. The $2 exacta paid $148.50. The post-time favorite, #4 Fog of War at 4-5, was no factor in the race.

Another race worth mentioning at Belmont was the following race—the 10th—a $62.5K allowance race 6f on the turf for three-year olds and up. The Handicap Wizard had 13-1 #2 Mai Ty One On as its top choice with a 21% winning probability. The market was discounting the horse perhaps because of its lower winning percentage at only 8.5%, yet Mai Ty One On had the highest final speed estimate at 47.7%. After getting boxed in along the rail at the top of the stretch with three horses in front of him, Mai Ty One On had to veer around the eventual winner, #9 Dr. Shane, toward the center of the track to find running room before launching a bid that fell just short at the wire. Mai Ty One On paid $13.60 for the place. This is exactly the kind of opportunity that the horse player should be looking for with the program. If not for the troubled trip, Mai Ty One On likely would have won and at long odds.

Uncategorized

HW 4.0 Testimonial

By handicapwizard on 24 May 201924 May 2019

We’d like to pass on some feedback that we received today about version 4.0. Here is what a customer wrote: “I’ve spent some time getting familiar with 4.0 and it’s my impression that the exponential smoothing approach is a significant advance. I have been handicapping horses on a serious basis since 1963. Over the years, I have used many methodologies and approaches, some with greater success, many with less. I firmly believe that speed is the most predictive factor in the outcome of a race. That’s the reason I like Handicap Wizard and how it analyzes a race.”

Uncategorized

Race 3 at GP, Thurs. May 23

By handicapwizard on 23 May 201925 May 2019

The Handicap Wizard hit the tri-fecta in race 3 today at Gulfstream, a $16K optional claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. The program picked the winner, #2 Dahonlega at 9-2, over the heavy favorite, #5 Sugar Bolt at 7-5. Through the opening quarter-mile Sugar Bolt dueled with #7 All About Stella for the lead, which continued to the top of the stretch. Sugar Bolt held on to a small lead heading to the wire, when Dahonlega came from behind in the middle of the track to surge to victory. The win paid $11.60, while the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $43.45. That’s 87-1 equivalent odds for the tri-fecta that the Handicap Wizard hit cold.

Uncategorized

Pimlico Recap for Sat., May 18

By handicapwizard on 19 May 201919 May 2019

The assessment of the outcome of the Preakness by the Handicap Wizard is that it was a difficult race to handicap because of the parity in the field, in which no horse deserved less than 5-1 odds, and because War of War had sub-par performances in the Kentucky Derby and Louisiana Derby that made him virtually impossible to value accurately quantitatively. Since his speed figures hinted at no advantage over the other horses given his 0% final speed estimate in simulation and relatively weak component estimates, the only metric one could gauge him by was Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, which at 7.4% indicated a fair value price around 12-1. At 6-1 War of Will was a 1/2 overlay, when you would rather have him be a 2/1 underlay. His performance in the Kentucky Derby, until he was interfered with, gave a glimpse of his strength perhaps, when he was running to the inside of Maximum Security coming out of the far turn, but that brief flash is not something that could be captured in a probabilistic model other than in one E2 data point. On the day at Pimlico, the Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selection in five out of twelve non-maiden races for a 42% hit rate, including with Catholic Boy in the G2 Dixie Stakes in the 12th, who had the highest probability at 20% along with Real Story, and in the G3 Galorett in the 10th with Mitchell Road.