On Saturday is the long-awaited 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, which is race 12 at Churchill Downs for three-year olds at 1 1/4 mi. with a purse of $2 million. After the scratch yesterday of favorite, Omaha Beach, who is replaced by Bodexpress, the morning line favorite is now Game Winner from the Baffert barn. He was 5-1 before the scratch. Putting the race into perspective, this is a difficult race to handicap because of the maximum number of horses at 20, made even more so by the lack of a strong favorite in the race.
The Handicap Wizard has as its top four selections Vekoma (17.38%), Maximum Security 11.85%, Tax (10.14%), and Game Winner (9.35%). Vekoma was the winner of the G1 Blue Grass Stakes, Maximum Security of the G1 Florida Derby and Tax the runner-up in the Wood Memorial. Game Winner is the two-year old champion and was the runner-up in the San Anita Derby and the Rebel Stakes. Vekoma has the highest probability among the contenders because of his high E1 and E2 estimates of 46.7% and 42.9% and a final speed estimate of 18%. From this data, one can expect Vekoma to be on or near the pace to the quarter mile pole. While Vekoma’s 0% LP estimate is concerning, jockey, Javier Castellano, who rode Vekoma in the Blue Grass, has said he will be mindful of conserving his horse’s speed for the stretch run. Vekoma’s trio estimate, which adds together the simulated E1, E2 and LP components, is highest at 31.8%, indicating that his lack of LP will be compensated for by his strong E1 and E2 figures. Castellano is a hot jockey coming in and has experience in the Derby, but has yet to win, although he has won the Preakness. Maximum Security is 2nd in the ordering and certainly deserves to be in the top two because of his undefeated record and his dominating performance in the Florida Derby. He has the highest LP estimate in the field at 42.4%. His final speed estimate of 17.2% is comparable to Vekoma’s. Third is Tax, who has the highest final speed estimate at 25.7%, but it is due to the larger variance in his final speed figures with a range between 83 and 103. His 103 is tied for highest in the field with Tacitus. On the negative side, the horse has more risk than Vekoma and Maximum Security with a Coefficient of Variance ratio of 11%. He was beaten in his last race in the Wood Memorial by Tacitus. The fourth horse is Game Winner, the 2 year old Champion, who boasts the highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, in the field at 12.7%, making him the most tried and true. If he is able to keep himself from not going wide into the first turn, which trainer, Bob Baffert, has expressed as a misgiving about his horse, Game Winner should be a strong contender. He has top breeding as a son of undefeated Candy Ride (along with Vekoma) to boot.
Code of Honor’s 5th ranking in the model has a lot to do with the variances in his E1 and E2 figures, causing those estimates to be higher. This elevates his combined winning probability, but it is still fairly low at 6.27%, making him a 16-1 shot by fair value. Tacitus looks to be just below the top tier horses, with a final speed estimate of 10% and above average winning percentage. He is coming off a peak effort in the Wood Memorial with a 103 final figure. As a long shot, Win Win Win deserves mentioning for his runner-up effort in the Blue Grass Stakes, which he lost by 3 lengths but was closing quickly on Vekoma. Therefore, the added distance of this race should benefit him. His final speed estimate of 97 in the Blue Grass underestimates his performance, because Irad Ortiz jr. had to check him midway around the far turn, yet he still finished 2nd through pure will. Win Win Win is the grandson of legendary, Sunday Silence, who was winner of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in 1989.
*The text was updated at 1:36 CST on May 2 to account for the scratch of Omaha Beach and replacement with Bodexpress. All data comes from PHW 4.0 Beta with the same settings as PHW 3.2
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