Day: May 17, 2019

In what was a difficult race to handicap, where no horse was assigned a probability higher than 20%, race 4 at Churchill—a $87K allowance race over 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year olds and up—saw the Handicap Wizard hit the exacta straight with its selections of #2 Botswana and #8 Apreciado.  Botswana was tied with Apreciado with the highest final speed estimate at 31%, but had the superior winning percentage of 20.5%. The LP advantage of Bluegrass Parkway was not enough, with Botswana holding off dual threats down the stretch to get the win. Botswana paid $10.40 and the $2 exacta paid  $86.80. 

In the following race, race 5 at Churchill, the Handicap Wizard hit the winner again with its top selection of #3 Chief-Know-It all at 2-1. He was at priced at a premium, having a winning probability of 25% (3-1 fair value) according to the program. Chief-Know-It-All paid $6.40.

Races 6 and 7 at Churchill also saw the Handicap Wizard’s top selection win. #5 D-Squared won in the 6th and #5 Conquest Windycity in the 7th.

 

 

 

Race 6 at Churchill, an $89K optional claiming race at 5.5f for three-year olds on the turf, saw a good result today for the Handicap Wizard with its top selection of #4 Fast Boat, who went off at a discount at 8-1 versus a winning probability of 21%. That put his fair value odds closer to 4-1. In addition to having the high speed estimate in the field at 32% (despite a performance dip in his last race), Fast Boat‘s E1 and E2 estimates rated second best behind those of Johnny Obvious. In the race, Fast Boast stalked until the quarter pole, when he shot to the front and never looked back. The horse paid $19.20.