The program had two good results worth mentioning at Gulfstream today in the 8th and the 10th. Beginning with the 10th, a $12.5K optional claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year olds who had won only one race other than its maiden, #5 Kong Style was the betting favorite from the minute the odds went live, going as low as 1, before settling at 2-1. Yet, the horse was not the favorite in the model, which favored #6 Fortunate Friends at 6-1 followed by #7 Glory of Florida at 6-1 also. This was one instance where the Handicap Wizard and the BPPR were in agreement with their top selections, but was not the live odds favorite. The betting suggested that the public knew something about the current form of Kong Style that was not being reflected in his PP stats. It turned out to be a thrilling race, with Fortunate Friends beating Kong Style by a nose at the wire with the last head bob. The horse paid $14.00 for the win. With that winning selection, the program had a positive ROI for selections at GP on the day.
In the 8th, a $6.5K claiming race at 6.5f on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares, there was a mind-boggling result of the tri-fecta, which paid $365.20 for a $0.50 wager, where the Handicap Wizard had the top three finishers in its top three selections but with the 1st and the 3rd reversed. The odds of the winning horse was 5-1 for #5 Tuesday Rose, 16-1 for #10 Cotton Tooyah as place and 19-1 for #4 Dancing Noelle as show. The two latter horses had implied winning probabilities from their odds of 6% and 5% and Coefficient of Variance ratios of 20% and 15%, indicating a lot of risk with those selections. Nevertheless, the program was only one combination away from hitting a 730-1 equivalent tri-fecta straight (though it did hit it with a box), which is an astounding result for the accuracy of the algorithm. The WP setting was set at 6 races back instead of 10 back.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 