In race 6 at Parx today there was an excellent example of how the ROI strategy with the Handicap Wizard software can be applied successfully and profitably. According to the program’s ROI analysis, the horse that had the most value was #1 Stormbeam, who had a total winning probability of 13% versus 20-1 odds, resulting in an expected ROI of 171%. The odds put his implied winning probability at only 4%, yet the horse had a final winning speed probability of 20%. From the simulation of final speed figures, his fair value was around 4-1. Qualitatively, the horse seemed like a good candidate, too, after responding well to a trainer change in mid May by positing a career best final speed figure of 90 at the end of May. In the race, Stormbeam hung back until the far turn before making his move, when he rallied wide. The horse blasted by the leaders down the stretch in a convincing win. Stormbeam paid $42.60. This is exactly the kind of horse a Handicap Wizard user should be focusing on, especially when priced at a substantial discount to the SPD estimate.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 