Day: June 14, 2019

Though maiden races generally have horses with greater risk, opportunities can still be found in such races from inefficient pricing by the market. That was the case in race 5 at Churchill today, a $50K maiden claiming race for three-year olds and up on the turf at one mile. According to ROI analysis, there were two horses with high value in the race, #3 Honos Man at 17-1 versus a total winning probability of 20% and a winning final speed probability of 34% and #6 Carbon Zero at 30-1 with a total winning probability of about 12%. As a third selection, Honos Man was the better choice for his speed. In the race, Honos Man took the lead at the half mile mark and went all the way to the wire, holding off a challenge from the heavy favorite, #9 Rock on Kitten at 4-5. The win paid $37.60, while the $2 exacta paid $108.80

Excluding the 1st race, which was  a maiden special weight race that had no data, the Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selections in three out of seven races at Churchill yesterday, specifically, the 2nd, 5th and 8th races. The hit rate was 43% with a +21% ROI. This was on a day when long shots won three in the 3rd, 6th and 7th.