Race 5 at Churchill, Fri., June 14

Though maiden races generally have horses with greater risk, opportunities can still be found in such races from inefficient pricing by the market. That was the case in race 5 at Churchill today, a $50K maiden claiming race for three-year olds and up on the turf at one mile. According to ROI analysis, there were two horses with high value in the race, #3 Honos Man at 17-1 versus a total winning probability of 20% and a winning final speed probability of 34% and #6 Carbon Zero at 30-1 with a total winning probability of about 12%. As a third selection, Honos Man was the better choice for his speed. In the race, Honos Man took the lead at the half mile mark and went all the way to the wire, holding off a challenge from the heavy favorite, #9 Rock on Kitten at 4-5. The win paid $37.60, while the $2 exacta paid $108.80