Here are free selections for Churchill hill tonight. The card features several stakes races, including the G3 Matt Winn Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. for three-year olds in the 5th and the G2 Stephen Foster Stakes at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds and up in the 8th.
Day: June 15, 2019
Continuing with the ROI theme, #8 Lawyer Drill in the 8th at Gulfstream was offering good value at 9-1 odds versus a total winning probability of about 20%, thanks to strong E1 and E1 component estimates of 60.6% and 35.1% and a 20% Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes. As a result, his expected ROI was near 100%. In the race, Lawyer Drill broke well from the gate and was second until the half mile mark, when he took the lead. He held on all the way to the wire, in spite of a challenge from #6 Indy Rules down the stretch. As a second selection, Lawyer Drill paid $20.80 for the win.
The best race scenario one can have with the Handicap Wizard is for the top selection to also have the highest expected ROI. That happened in the 2nd race today at Woodbine, a $15K maiden race on the turf at 1 mi. for fillies and mares three-years old and up. Despite there being spotty speed data, the Handicap Wizard rated #1 Millbank Magic first with a total winning probability of 34%, boosted by a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 66%. According to that that metric, the horse’s fair value was under 1-1. Given his 7-1 odds, however, Millbank Magic was likely seen as risky by the public because of a poor performance two races back, when he put up a final speed figure of 32. In the race, Millbank Magic squeezed through a gap coming out of the far turn that allowed him to break away from the field. Down the stretch, Millbank Magic dueled with #4 Powerhouse at 9-1. In the end, Millbank Magic’s class strength held up, paying $16.10 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 