By The best race scenario one can have with the Handicap Wizard is for the top selection to also have the highest expected ROI. That happened in the 2nd race today at Woodbine, a $15K maiden race on the turf at 1 mi. for fillies and mares three-years old and up. Despite there being spotty speed data, the Handicap Wizard rated #1 Millbank Magic first with a total winning probability of 34%, boosted by a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 66%. According to that that metric, the horse’s fair value was under 1-1. Given his 7-1 odds, however, Millbank Magic was likely seen as risky by the public because of a poor performance two races back, when he put up a final speed figure of 32. In the race, Millbank Magic squeezed through a gap coming out of the far turn that allowed him to break away from the field. Down the stretch, Millbank Magic dueled with #4 Powerhouse at 9-1. In the end, Millbank Magic’s class strength held up, paying $16.10 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 