The program got off to a good start today in the 1st at Woodbine, a $40K optional claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old an up at 1 1/16 mi. on dirt. The model’s top selection was #4 Macho Bourbon with a 34.24% winning probability, thanks to a relatively strong SPD (46.6%) and E1 and E2 (51.9% and 55.1%) component estimates. After breaking well out of the gate, Macho Bourbon went wire-to-wire in uncontested fashion, beating the live odds favorite #1 Biodetti’s Choice at 3-2. Apart from having the highest winning probability, the horse had the 2nd highest expected return with an expected ROI of 71%, which is an ideal combination to have. The horse paid $10.00 for the win.
The Handicap Wizard had another winner at Woodbine with its top selection, #2 Perfect Forester, in the 4th, a $20K claiming race at 6.5f on the turf for three-years and up. Like in the previous race, Perfect Forester benefited from relatively strong E1 and E2 component estimates (41.7% and 54.1%). The win paid $7.10, though this time the horse had a negative expected return.
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Pro-Handicap Analytics 