One of the most interesting races today odds-wise was in the 7th at Gulfstream, a $6,250 claiming race at 1m on the dirt for three-year olds without a win since early May. According to the program, #7 Dream Martini had the highest winning percentage at 33% versus odds of 6-1, representing value. There was also value in #2 Avast Matey at 46-1 compared to the model’s winning probability of 7.42%. With those high of odds, it had an expected return of +249%, the highest in the field, with Dream Martini next at +131%. The market saw Chiseled as the best horse with odds of 6-5. Even though the race was a low-stakes claiming race, the implied winning probability of Chiseled at 45% (versus the model probability 19.60%) signaled that the horse was a strong contender to win. Therefore, if the horseplayer was still looking to play value, Dream Martini or Avast Matey would have to be taken for place or show. Judging by Avast Matey’s SPD estimate, the horse did not appear to have much speed; however, his E1 and E2 estimates of 36% and 38% told a different story, that the horse was relatively fast through early and middle distances. The horse also had decent final speed figures five and six races back. Where Avast Matey was lacking was in LP, indicating the horse was not finishing his races. If the horse could stretch out just a little farther, he was worth taking a flier on either to place or show. As it turns out, Chiseled won the race, while Avast Matey came in 2nd and Dream Martini third. Avast Matey led for much of the race, until he was overtaken down the stretch by Chiseled. Avast Matey paid $26.40 for the place.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 