Day: June 29, 2019

Here are the model results for today’s $1 million Queen’s Plate Stakes in race 10 at Woodbine, which is run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #10 Skywire as its top selection due to its highest SPD and LP estimates in the field at 28% and 57% for a total winning probability of 18.34%. Next are Avie’s Flatter at 15.64% and Desert Ride at 14.88%. Two horses that are offering value according to ROI analysis compared to the M/L are #1 Desert Ride at 7-1 and #7 Federal Law at 15-1.

The race of the day for the program was the 5th today at Gulfstream, a $20K maiden claiming race at 7.5f for fillies and mares three-years old. According to ROI analysis, both #7 Glovanna at 21-1 and #10 Assume Control at 34-1 offered significant value compared to their winning probabilities of 16.9% and 13.7% as the second and third selections. In the race, #4 Captured Beauty at 17-1 broke to the lead and led through the 1st half, followed by the live odds favorite #8 Prickly Kitten at 5-2. Glovanna and Assume Control were forwardly placed as well. Coming around the far turn, #2 Golden Tap at 9-2 weaved through traffic before finding running room in the center, while Prickly Kitten continued to press on the inside. Inside the last 1/16 mi. Glovanna caught up with the leaders in an outside bid before beating them at the wire by a neck. The horse paid $45.20 for the win. The model had the exacta order reversed, which paid $236.40.