Queen’s Plate Recap

The result of the $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbine was an interesting one from a handicapping point of view. While it was not the top selection in the model according to the main algorithm, #5 One Bad Boy had signs of speed in its E1 and E2 estimates (49.4% and 30.8%), so much so that the horse ranked highest in the TRIO category with a 53% winning probability. The TRIO metric is an estimate that combines the simulation results of the E1, E2 and LP components together. Why the horse did not have a higher total winning probability is because it had the lowest variance in final speed figures in the field, which depressed his SPD simulation results relative to the other horses. The other factor was a relatively low winning percentage at 5.8%. Yet, in this race, its speed more than compensated.