Month: June 2019

The best race scenario one can have with the Handicap Wizard is for the top selection to also have the highest expected ROI. That happened in the 2nd race today at Woodbine, a $15K maiden race on the turf at 1 mi. for fillies and mares three-years old and up. Despite there being spotty speed data, the Handicap Wizard rated #1 Millbank Magic first with a total winning probability of 34%, boosted by a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 66%. According to that that metric, the horse’s fair value was under 1-1. Given his 7-1 odds, however, Millbank Magic was likely seen as risky by the public because of a poor performance two races back, when he put up a final speed figure of 32. In the race, Millbank Magic squeezed through a gap coming out of the far turn that allowed him to break away from the field. Down the stretch, Millbank Magic dueled with #4 Powerhouse at 9-1. In the end, Millbank Magic’s class strength held up, paying $16.10 for the win.

 

Though maiden races generally have horses with greater risk, opportunities can still be found in such races from inefficient pricing by the market. That was the case in race 5 at Churchill today, a $50K maiden claiming race for three-year olds and up on the turf at one mile. According to ROI analysis, there were two horses with high value in the race, #3 Honos Man at 17-1 versus a total winning probability of 20% and a winning final speed probability of 34% and #6 Carbon Zero at 30-1 with a total winning probability of about 12%. As a third selection, Honos Man was the better choice for his speed. In the race, Honos Man took the lead at the half mile mark and went all the way to the wire, holding off a challenge from the heavy favorite, #9 Rock on Kitten at 4-5. The win paid $37.60, while the $2 exacta paid $108.80

Excluding the 1st race, which was  a maiden special weight race that had no data, the Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selections in three out of seven races at Churchill yesterday, specifically, the 2nd, 5th and 8th races. The hit rate was 43% with a +21% ROI. This was on a day when long shots won three in the 3rd, 6th and 7th.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In race 6 at Parx today there was an excellent example of how the ROI strategy with the Handicap Wizard software can be applied successfully and profitably. According to the program’s ROI analysis, the horse that had the most value was #1 Stormbeam, who had a total winning probability of 13% versus 20-1 odds, resulting in an expected ROI of 171%. The odds put his implied winning probability at only 4%, yet the horse had a final winning speed probability of 20%. From the simulation of final speed figures, his fair value was around 4-1. Qualitatively, the horse seemed like a good candidate, too, after responding well to a trainer change in mid May by positing a career best final speed figure of 90 at the end of May. In the race, Stormbeam hung back until the far turn before making his move, when he rallied wide. The horse blasted by the leaders down the stretch in a convincing win. Stormbeam paid $42.60.  This is exactly the kind of horse a Handicap Wizard user should be focusing on, especially when priced at a substantial discount to the SPD estimate. 

 

The Handicap Wizard did well in the Belmont Stakes, having the three top finishers among its top four selections, including #1 Joevia at 21-1 as the show horse. The $2 exacta paid $96, while the $0.50 tri-fecta from a four-horse box paid $622.00.

From the Preview:

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We’d also like to point out that the Handicap Wizard hit the tri-fecta straight with the order of its final speed estimates.

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Here’s the link to the video analysis of the Belmont Stakes on Youtube.