Month: August 2019

Today’s feature race is the G1 $750K Woodford Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 1/8 mi on the dirt for three-year olds and up. While perhaps not being on par with the Travers last week, this race has a number of graded stakes winners and runner-ups, including Vino Rosso, winner of the Pacific Gold Cup in late May at Santa Anita. Preservationalist is back, who won the Suburban at Belmont in July, but came up flat most recently in the Whitney at the beginning of August. After coming in second to McKinzie in the Whitney, the Chinese invader, Yoshida, will see if he can match or top his peak performance effort last time out. There’s also Toms d’Etat, a two-time winner at lower stakes, most recently, in the Alydar at Saratoga and Mr. Buff, who’s the winner of four of six stakes races lifetime. Like with the Traves, this race, too, is an open race, with only one horse receiving higher than 20% winning probability, and that is Preservationalist at 20.37%. The big question with Preservationalist, of course, is whether he can bounce back from the 4th place finish in the Whitney, when he was leading through the far turn in that mile and an eighth race, but ultimately tired after posting quick early fractions. His trainer, Jimmy Jerkins, said that his horse worked well last week, citing one blowout work in particular, and so deserves to take another shot. Jerkins faulted the regular rider for Preservationalist, Alvardo, for losing ground early on in order to take the lead from McKinzie after breaking from the outside, a strategy that ultimately backfired. In the same race, Vino Rosso finished one position better to get third. He may have suffered some from a less than optimal trip in being six-wide down the stretch after being only two lengths back coming out of the far turn. The rider for Vino Rosso, John Velazquez, comes in with the hot hand after winning the Travers last week aboard Code of Honor. Yoshida looked lively in the Whitney, finishing 2nd in that race, while showing a burst of speed down the stretch. Like with Vino Rosso, he got hung wide coming out of the far turn, which cost him significant ground, when he lost by under two lengths in the end, thanks to a huge LP figure of 113. Toms d’Etat is not a horse that should be underestimated in this race after a very good effort in the 1 1/8 mi. Alydar at Saratoga at the beginning of August, when he won by one length, but was hand ridden for the last sixteenth of mile. In terms of metrics, Preservationalist has the edge in speed with a final speed estimate of 38.7%, but has fairly low E2 and LP estimates. He is third in Winning percentage at 13%, which would make him a 6 or 7-1 horse by fair value according to that metric instead of 7-2, which is where he is on the morning line. Second in speed is Tom’s d’Etat at 26.8%. He has above average distribution from E1 through LP, but is little light in winning percentage at 9.3%. Yoshida is 4th highest in terms of speed at 10.2% but has the highest LP estimate in the field at 44%. He also has the highest winning percentage at 25%. However, all four of the top selections, including Vino Rosso, are overlays according to the model, if you’re going by the morning line odds. Mongolian Groom at 15-1 on the M/L versus an 8.5% total winning probability and Bal Harbor at 15-1 as well versus a 9.7% winning probability are two horses offering at least a little value. Mongolian Groom comes in in good form after finishing 3rd in the Pacific Classic and 2nd in the San Diego Handicap before that. For his part, Bal Harbour put in a gritty effort his last time out in the Monmouth Cup in late July, when he lost by a head to War Story, who did nothing in the Pacific Classic. While this is a wide open race, it is not necessarily a good one handicapping-wise, when none of the favorites are offering any value. Because I don’t think that a reversion to the mean is a given in the case of Preservationalist as a six-year old horse after Alvardo’s shaky ride last time, I would opt for Yoshida in this race who finished solidly in the Whitney, followed by Toms d’Etat, and Mongolian Groom or Bal Harbour for third. The Handicap Wizard has the order Preservationalist at 20.37%, Yoshida at 18.73%, Toms E’tat at 15.02% and Vino Rosso at 13.76%. 

The Handicap Wizard did much better this week in the Travers at Saratoga, as did this handicapper in picking Code of Honor to win. The program’s third selection in Code of Honor won, while it had the exacta in its top three selections as well as the tri-fecta in its top four selections in C.O.H. (3rd), Tacitus (1st) and Mucho Gusto (4th). The tri-fecta ordering went exactly according to Winning Percentage, as shown below.

On Saturday is the $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga, run at the classic distance of 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features a stellar field, including Tacitus, who is the morning-line favorite at 5-2. Tacitus was the winner of the Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby. Most recently, he placed second to Tax in the Jim Dandy stakes and was second to Sir Winston in the Belmont Stakes. Next is Code of Honor at 4-1 on the M/L, who won the G3 Dwyer at Belmont in his last race in early July. Before that, he finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. Tax, Owendale and Mucho Gusto are all 6-1 on the money line. Tax, again, was the winner of the Jim Dandy Stakes on this same track at Saratoga over Tacitus. His only other graded stakes win was in the Withers at Aqueduct in February. Owendale won the Ohio Derby in his most recent start and previously was the winner of the Lexington at Keeneland. Mucho Gusto nearly beat Maximum Security his last time out in the Haskell in July. He has four wins in G3 races, including the Affirmed, the RB Lewis and the Bob Hope. Among the other horses, Highest Honors comes into the race on a two-race winning streak after winning the Curlin at Saratoga in July. Everfast gives it another try after second place finishes in the Preakness and the Holy Bull. Broadly speaking, this is a wide open race with no horse getting higher than a 20% winning probability according to the model. The Handicap Wizard is favoring Tacitus with a 19.07% winning probability, who rates best in final speed at 32.6% and has the second best Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 20.9%. Next is Tax with a 15.76% winning probability. He has the second highest final speed estimate at 28.1%, but is somewhat risky with an 8% CV or Coefficient of Variance ratio. Third is Code of Honor, who has the highest Winning Percentage in the field at 21.2% and the lowest risk, but does not factor well in terms of final speed with a 0% estimate, though has the highest LP estimate at 44%. Fourth is Mucho Gusto with a 13.07% total winning probability, who is coming into the race off a career peak 102 Brisnet final speed figure. Mucho Gusto ranks fourth in final speed behind Tacitus, Tax and Owendale at 15.1%, but is first in the E2 category at 27.7%. Interestingly, Mucho Gusto has the highest COMP estimate at 28.3%, which adds the simulated results from E1, E2 and LP together, meaning that his component estimates stack up well against those of the other horses. Contrary to the Pacific Classic, which was a complete disaster in terms of expectations meeting their mark, it is reasonable to believe that this race will follow expectations better, consideration that the average coefficient of variance for all the horses is just 5%. In terms of pedigree for the distance, the strongest horses appear to be Code of Honor as a son of Noble Mission, Mucho Gusto as son of Mucho Macho Man, and Laughing Fox, sired by Union Rags. Highest Honors and Tacitus are both sons of Tapit. Qualitatively, there is no stand-out horse in this race and the differences between the top horses are slight. Code of Honor looked superb down the stretch in his last race in the Dwyer, but that was at only 1 mi. That said, his sire in Noble Mission was a multiple turf race champion at the G1 level overseas, so the distance should not be an issue for him. For his effort in digging in against Tacitus in the Jim Dandy, Tax has the edge between the two. It’s doubtful he would have been overtaken, had the race gone one furlong farther. Mucho Gusto had a great effort against Maximum Security in the Haskell, showing that he could go toe to toe with the Kentucky Derby champion, but seemed to have maxed himself out at 1 1/8 mi. There’s a risk that Baffert has run him too hard, with this being his fourth race in as many months after his peak effort in the third race off the layoff, which was the Haskell. Tax and Tacitus likewise are coming into the Travers with quick turnarounds on less than a month’s rest. Owendale is intriguing because he’s coming in not only after a peak effort in the Ohio Derby with a final figure of 99, but he’s also more rested than the other horses. In the final analysis, I believe it will be close between Code of Honor and Owendale for 1st because of their last LP figures of 115 and 112, reflected in their top LP estimates, followed by Tax, Tacitus and Mucho Gusto. Mucho Gusto could very well be leading through 1 1/8 mi., but I see him fading after that. In any case, the Handicap Wizard is calling it Tacitus, Tax, Code of Honor, Mucho Gusto and Owendale—all sensible selections that more or less follow the morning line ordering.