Day: August 3, 2019

All the results posted today were done using the 0.5 alpha setting in the program. This was to illustrate that the program is equally effective with 0.5 alpha as it is with 0.25 alpha, but for different reasons. Current and prospective users should review the posting today explaining the difference between the 0.25 and 0.5 alpha setting.

One of the best handicapping results today in a graded stakes race was in race 8 at Saratoga, the G1 Longines Test, run at 7f on the dirt for three year-old fillies. The program had #1 Serengetti Empress as its top selection with a winning probability of 31.66% vs. odds 7-2 and #3 Covfefe second with a probability of 27.18% vs. odds of 3-1. Covfefe ranked 1st in terms of speed with a final speed estimate of 58.4%, while Serengetti Empress had the edge in class with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 33%. In the race, Serengetti Empress led through the opening quarter with Covfefe just behind her and it stayed that way to the stretch, when the horses dueled to the finish line. After two or three lead changes between the two, Brad Cox trained, Covfefe, prevailed, while Serengetti Empress came in second by a length and Bellafina at 3-1 finished third. The model nearly had the tri-fecta straight with its selections of #1, #3 and #2, despite British Invader, Royal Charlotte, receiving heavy money flows at 5-2.

With the late scratch of Thundersnow, here are the updated results of the Handicap Wizard for the Whitney Stakes, race 9 today at Saratoga. The program now sees the race between McKinzie and Preservationalist with near equal winning probabilities of 31%.

There was a huge hit today with a top ROI horse in the 3rd at Gulfstream, a $10K claiming race on the turf at 1 1/16 mi. for three year olds. At 60-1 #8 Sidney’s Charisma was the longest shot on the board due to the horse measuring up poorly against the other horses in terms of speed, yet still had a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 13.9%, the second highest in the field. In the ROI analysis, the horse was top with an expected ROI of 411%, an extraordinarily high value. In the race, Sidney’s Charisma went to the lead out of the gate from the outside and never looked back, winning impressively by three lengths. The race underscores the value of the ROI approach of the Handicap Wizard by incorporating the live odds in the analysis. Such opportunities do not come very often, though are identifiable by this software.

The Handicap Wizard got off to a good start today, August 3rd, in race 1, a $50K optional claiming race on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s second selection, #4 Spanned, won at 2-1 with a winning probability of 16.92%, while its third selection, #6 I Turn A Night Up, came in second at 9-1 with a 13.21% probability. The $2 exacta paid $60.40.