Day: August 17, 2019

The Del Mar Oaks, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year old fillies, looks to be a wide-open affair with a large field of fourteen. Cambier Parc comes in an an overlay favorite at 2.5 on the M/L with the highest Winning Percentage at 19.3%, but ranks fourth in terms of final speed according to the simulation at 12.4%. The horse’s total winning probability of 13.72% puts her fair value around 6-1 or 7-1. Keeper of the Stars offers value at 10-1 on the M/L because of a final speed winning estimate of 38.3%, but that is based on just two figures, and the horse’s WP does not stack up well against those of the others at just 3.1%. Mucho Gusto deserves consideration from having the second best WP at 11.9% and enters the race on a three straight win-streak on the turf, with two at the $200K stakes level. Her last performance in the San Clemente was impressive, considering that the horse had her momentum stalled after Apache Princess angled to the right in front of her down the stretch, when she had to go further wide and then re-fire to get up in time for the win. Without the interference, Mucho Unusual’s 91 final speed figure most certainly would have been higher by a few points. The following projections were made with PHW 4.0 Turf program.

Today’s feature race is the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year olds and up. The field features such notable horses as Seeking the Soul, winner of G2 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill in June, when he defeated another entrant, Quip, by a neck. There is also War Story, winner of the G3 Monmouth Cup in late July, and Pavel, who was third in the Suburban Handicap at Belmont in early July. Among the others, Campaign won the G3 Cougar Handicap at Del Mar with a peak performance in late July. The Handicap Wizard is favoring, not surprisingly, Seeking the Soul in this race, who is the morning line favorite at 3-1. At that price, he is a slight underlay, in view of his total winning probability of 27.55%, coupled with a robust winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 38.8%, which would put his fair value closer to 2-1 than to 3-1. However, he does not have the most speed in the race according to the simulation. That nod goes to Pavel with 28.6% final speed winning estimate, thanks to the career best 110 final speed figure he put up in his last race in the Suburban Handicap, which was still was beneath Catholic Boy’s and Preservationist’s figures in that race. The program has assigned him about an 18% total winning probability. What’s to like about Pavel is that he’s coming into the race in peak form, when his top performance in his last race came at the same distance, 1 ¼ mi, in the Suburban Handicap. The horse is no stranger to Del Mar after coming in 2nd in the Pacific Classic last year behind Accelerate. Quip is the program’s third selection with a winning probability of 15.82% and like with Pavel, is coming off a career best performance in the Stephen Foster. While it is unlikely that any of the other horses will crack the top three, War Story deserves consideration for his relatively strong E2 and LP winning estimate at 27.5% and 10.4%, although his final speed estimate at 5.6% is light compared to the top ranked horses in this field. His Winning Percentage is third best at 11.6%. Campaign has only one graded stakes win to date, which came in his last race in the Cougar at Del Mar, so he does take a back-seat to the others in terms of class with only a 4.1% winning percentage and is the riskiest horse in the field with a CV or Coefficient of Variance ratio of 11%. In the final analysis, it is hard to disagree with the predictions of the program for the Classic that it will go in the order of Seeking the Soul, Pavel and Quip. Yet, War Story’s grit in holding off Bal Harbour in the Monmouth Cup was impressive enough that he deserves a look as a horse with an outside chance to win, if he can repeat that performance. Both he and Seeking the Soul appeared to have the best late kick in their last races, although War Story is a bit expensive at 8-1 on the M/L. The program has him at 9-1 fair value. Pacific Classic Selections: Seeking the Soul, Pavel, War Story and Quip

PacificClassicPreview