By The Del Mar Oaks, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year old fillies, looks to be a wide-open affair with a large field of fourteen. Cambier Parc comes in an an overlay favorite at 2.5 on the M/L with the highest Winning Percentage at 19.3%, but ranks fourth in terms of final speed according to the simulation at 12.4%. The horse’s total winning probability of 13.72% puts her fair value around 6-1 or 7-1. Keeper of the Stars offers value at 10-1 on the M/L because of a final speed winning estimate of 38.3%, but that is based on just two figures, and the horse’s WP does not stack up well against those of the others at just 3.1%. Mucho Gusto deserves consideration from having the second best WP at 11.9% and enters the race on a three straight win-streak on the turf, with two at the $200K stakes level. Her last performance in the San Clemente was impressive, considering that the horse had her momentum stalled after Apache Princess angled to the right in front of her down the stretch, when she had to go further wide and then re-fire to get up in time for the win. Without the interference, Mucho Unusual’s 91 final speed figure most certainly would have been higher by a few points. The following projections were made with PHW 4.0 Turf program.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 