The Handicap Wizard did much better this week in the Travers at Saratoga, as did this handicapper in picking Code of Honor to win. The program’s third selection in Code of Honor won, while it had the exacta in its top three selections as well as the tri-fecta in its top four selections in C.O.H. (3rd), Tacitus (1st) and Mucho Gusto (4th). The tri-fecta ordering went exactly according to Winning Percentage, as shown below.
Here is a spectacular result with the Turf Program today in race 7 at Gulfstream, a $10K claiming race on the turf at 7 1/2f for three or four-year olds who have not won more than three races. The model had #9 Southern Sea at 30-1 as its top selection with a winning probability of 19.22% followed by the market favorite, #1 King Orb, second at 6-5 with an 18.93% winning probability. Southern Sea rated poorly in terms of final speed with a 0% estimate; however, the horse had excellent E1 and E2 estimates of 46.6% and 100%, which the algorithm factored. In the race, Southern Sea went out to an early lead and held on all the way until well down the stretch, when he was overtaken by King Orb just before the wire. This race shows that one can have confidence in the program to deliver, that the expectations hit their mark, even when a top selection appears unlikely according to its post-time odds. Southern Sea paid $17.60 for the place and the $2 exacta paid $88.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 