Month: August 2019
We are re-offering the Handicap Wizard 4.0 Turf program on the Purchase page with the new grey color scheme. This program is geared strictly toward turf races by providing “apples to apples” comparisons in the turf data, using the same processes and algorithm as with the 4.0 version. It is recommended that the program be used jointly with the regular version, because there will be times when the turf data is incomplete. Of course, the regular version can handle turf races. It handles all races. However, the Turf Program gives a purely turf perspective, when the betting public generally does not differentiate between dirt and turf, which can give the user an edge with more precise analysis. Like with the regular version, this program is intended for users with intermediate to expert level handicapping ability.
To illustrate the value of the program, in the 1st race at Woodbine on July 3, 2019, the program had Mark Casse Trained, King and His Court, as its top selection with a total winning probability of 32.05% versus odds of more than 3-1. By contrast, Florida Won was the market favorite with odds of 1-1, but had a winning probability of just 16.12% according to the model. Thanks to a burst of speed down the stretch, King and His Court won the race, paying $9.70. He was clearly the best horse according to turf analysis in terms of speed with a 61.1% LP winning estimate and was essentially tied for the highest Winning Percentage.
Another example was in the $1 mil. Manhattan Stakes (G1) at Belmont on June 8, 2019, run at 1/4 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up. The model’s top selection was Bricks and Mortar with a winning probability of 27.65% versus odds of 7-5, who won, despite not having the most speed in the field. Bricks and Mortar had the most class, however, with a Winning Percentage of 51.7%, which the program recognized.
A third example was in the $100K River Memories Stake at Belmont on July 5, 2019, run at 1 1/2 mi. on the turf for four-year old fillies and mares. The program’s top selection was Semper Sententiae, who with a total winning probability of 33.02% won at 9-2.
All the results posted today were done using the 0.5 alpha setting in the program. This was to illustrate that the program is equally effective with 0.5 alpha as it is with 0.25 alpha, but for different reasons. Current and prospective users should review the posting today explaining the difference between the 0.25 and 0.5 alpha setting.
One of the best handicapping results today in a graded stakes race was in race 8 at Saratoga, the G1 Longines Test, run at 7f on the dirt for three year-old fillies. The program had #1 Serengetti Empress as its top selection with a winning probability of 31.66% vs. odds 7-2 and #3 Covfefe second with a probability of 27.18% vs. odds of 3-1. Covfefe ranked 1st in terms of speed with a final speed estimate of 58.4%, while Serengetti Empress had the edge in class with a Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 33%. In the race, Serengetti Empress led through the opening quarter with Covfefe just behind her and it stayed that way to the stretch, when the horses dueled to the finish line. After two or three lead changes between the two, Brad Cox trained, Covfefe, prevailed, while Serengetti Empress came in second by a length and Bellafina at 3-1 finished third. The model nearly had the tri-fecta straight with its selections of #1, #3 and #2, despite British Invader, Royal Charlotte, receiving heavy money flows at 5-2.
With the late scratch of Thundersnow, here are the updated results of the Handicap Wizard for the Whitney Stakes, race 9 today at Saratoga. The program now sees the race between McKinzie and Preservationalist with near equal winning probabilities of 31%.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 