Pennsylvania Derby Preview

Here are the results of the program for today’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby in race 11 at Parx, run at 1 1/8 mi on the dirt for three year olds. After the scratch of Maximum Security earlier in the week, the program is calling it a close contest between Spun to Run and Improbable with total winning probabilities of 30.04% and 28.93%, respectively. Spun to Run has an edge an speed with a 54.1% final speed estimate, thanks to a career best and field best 110 final speed figure he recorded in the Smarty Jones, while Improbable has the 2nd highest winning percentage behind War of Will—the winner of the Preakness—at 24.8%. Even though Improbable has the strongest E1 and E2 speed estimates of 75% and 53.2%, the big question with him is whether he can last the 1 1/8 mi. distance, because of his low 2.9% LP estimate. Mr Money should not be dismissed, since he has the highest LP estimate of 48.9% and a relatively high Winning Percentage of 22.9%. After clicking on the graphic, there is a link on the bottom right for seeing it in maximum resolution.